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Willy Woo Flags Bitcoin Bull Trap as Bear Market Enters Middle Phase
- On-chain analyst Willy Woo warned that Bitcoin’s recent recovery toward US$74K is a “bull trap” likely to last until the end of April before the broader downtrend resumes.
- Bitcoin has declined 46.82% from its October 2025 all-time high of US$126K, with Woo placing the asset “solidly in the middle of its bear market” based on liquidity flows rather than price action alone.
- Supporting data from Santiment and CryptoQuant aligns with Woo’s bearish outlook, with whale selling continuing even as retail investors buy below US$70K.
Bitcoin’s fallout from a record US$126K (AU$180K) in October 2025 surely made a lot of people nervous, waiting for some kind of rebound, no matter how small.
That said, Bitcoin’s move back toward US$74,000 (AU$105K) may not mark a real recovery, as on-chain analyst Willy Woo warns it’s just a classic bull trap.
Woo’s view is that the market is no longer in the early stage of the downturn. He has described Bitcoin as being in the middle part of a bear cycle, where temporary rallies can appear convincing but fail because longer-term capital has not returned. He said the current bounce could continue through the end of April, but not necessarily change the wider direction.
Related: OKX Says Australia Could Unlock $24B Digital Finance Boom With Faster Crypto Rules
A Three-Phase Bear Market
Woo’s analytical framework breaks Bitcoin bear markets into three phases.
In February, he said the market was moving from the first phase into the second, a stage where weakening liquidity spreads across broader risk assets.
The final phase, in his framework, occurs only after a deeper capitulation followed by renewed long-term capital entering the market.
Based on this model, Woo projects a potential cycle bottom near US$45K (AU$64K) in late 2026, with a new bull market possibly emerging in 2027.
Sentiment Data Supports the Bearish Case
Data from Santiment shows large holders continuing to sell while retail traders accumulate Bitcoin below US$70K (AU$100K), a pattern the firm says often precedes further corrections.
CryptoQuant has also indicated the market still reflects bear-cycle conditions despite the recent rebound. It should be noted the Crypto Fear and Greed Index has returned to “extreme fear,” which clearly suggests market confidence remains weak.
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Analyst Benjamin Cowen, independently, characterised 2026 as “a bear market year” for Bitcoin, stating new all-time highs are unlikely before conditions improve substantially.
Bitcoin was trading at US$67K (AU$95K) at the time of publication, up 3.74% over the past 30 days but still sitting 46.82% below its all-time high. The asset touched recent lows near US$59K (AU$89K) in February before recovering.
Read more: OKX Says Australia Could Unlock $24B Digital Finance Boom With Faster Crypto Rules
Author
José Oramas
José is a journalist and translator with a keen interest in blockchain and cryptocurrencies.
