Spot Bitcoin ETF Anticipation Grows, Will it Push BTC Price Up?

By Ben Knight November 10, 2023 In Bitcoin, ETF
Source: Adobe Stock
  • The SEC has a seven-day window to approve a spot Bitcoin ETF.
  • Even if the SEC does not approve the fund in the short term, analysts believe there’s a 90% chance it will be finalised before January 10, 2024.
  • Bitcoin’s price exploded past US$ 38k earlier this week, before settling at around US$ 36.5k

A spot Bitcoin ETF has been on the tip of everyone’s tongue ever since traditional financial institutions came flocking to the sector with ETF applications earlier this year. With big players like Invesco and BlackRock entering the scene for the first time, it appears inevitable that the Securities and Exchange Commission will approve such funds – and sooner rather than later. 

SEC Has Eight Days To Approve Spot ETFs

The SEC currently has an eight-day window – starting today – to approve any of the 12 pending spot Bitcoin ETF applications currently sitting at their desk. This “comment period” will end on the 17th of November, after which, the SEC will be unable to approve any ETFs until 2024.

It’s quite possible that the SEC once again delays its decision on whether to approve spot Bitcoin ETFs or not – especially after the regulatory body was handed a hefty defeat at trial by Grayscale. This hearing, where Grayscale sought clarity over their ETF approval being rejected, resulted in the SEC’s declining of spot Bitcoin funds being labelled “arbitrary and capricious”. 

Given the court’s ruling, the entrance of major financial institutions and the constant delays, it appears inevitable that a spot Bitcoin ETF is just around the corner. Even if the current window for approval is not met, senior analysts at Bloomberg, Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart, believe there’s a 90% chance an official acceptance of the spot fund will come before January 10, 2024.  


Anticipation Builds As Bitcoin Holds US$ 35k

The “will they, won’t they” arc of the SEC and a spot Bitcoin ETF has dominated the crypto news cycle over the past week. Now, with a short-term deadline instilled, traders are continuing to accumulate BTC in anticipation of a potential approval coming in the next seven days. Bitcoin peaked at nearly US$ 38k (AU$ 60k) yesterday, before consolidating around US$ 36.5k (AU$ 57.3k).

The question now is: will a positive spot Bitcoin ETF announcement push up BTC’s price? One could argue that the market has already priced in a potential approval, with BTC posting impressive gains of 33% over the past month. On the other hand, there seems to be a serious appetite for a spot Bitcoin fund, with each lick of news – even when false – being met with significant short-term price gains. Ultimately, a spike in BTC’s price wouldn’t be unexpected if the ETF is to be approved in the coming week, but such price movement would likely end up as just a speck in a much larger-scale trend – be it positive or negative.

Ben Knight

Ben Knight

Ben Knight is a writer and editor from Melbourne with a passion for all things music and finance. He enjoys turning complex topics – especially the technical details of cryptocurrency – into digestible bites that anybody can understand. He acquired his Master’s in Writing, Editing and Publishing from RMIT in 2019 and has run his own creative writing business ever since.

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