On the Radar – Coins to Watch 04/07

  • Bitcoin is back at key month lows, ahead of major data catalysts. 
  • Ethereum Exchange Traded Funds are one step closer to listing on US stock exchanges. 
  • Altcoin analysis: ETH and TON

Altcoins continue to feel the squeeze overnight, as Bitcoin yet again tests price levels below the $60,000 USD mark. At a glance this morning, while Bitcoin trades -2.8% down from yesterday’s 10 AM market open, altcoins like Pepe are down -9%. Bitcoin also now finds itself at a key decision point technically, which will be covered below.

The first two weeks of July hold key macroeconomic updates that drive volatility in crypto markets.

The key theme in this week’s data releases is US Jobs data, which continues to be the talking point by Federal Reserve committee members when quizzed about when rate cuts are coming.

Next week, we have inflation data, which has recently been trending lower than expected in both May and June.   

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Hot Take

Weak jobs data could be good news for crypto prices, as this is a warning sign the Fed is watching to deliver changes in monetary policy. Even if that is the case, it could take a few weeks before any visible bullish trend develops. 

I’m getting comfortable with the idea that we could continue to go sideways or lower. 

Ethereum News

Bitwise has amended its Form S-1 registration statement ahead of time, which wasn’t due until July 8th. According to Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas, this may indicate that the go-live date for Ethereum trading on US stock exchanges is nearing.

“..All indications launch still on for this month. More details to come next week.” said Mr Balchunas.

Related: Bitcoin Dips Below $60K as Fed Chair Dampens Rate Cut Hopes

Bitcoin – BTC

Bitcoin continues to move between the March High and March Low range; we are approaching an important period with these lows again. Below are two potential scenarios at this key monthly price level. 

Source: TradingView

Bullish Scenario

Bulls continue to defend at these lows, and we start to see a move towards the monthly mid-range of $66,000 USD.  

Bearish Scenario

Failure to garner any interest from buyers could see prices lose this previous area that has acted as support and may result in prices back below $60,000 USD. 

My Thoughts 

The next few days are critical, if we can’t continue to defend and create any bullish structure on lower time frames we could see Bitcoin heading towards the next levels of support around $53,000 USD. 

Related: Rumours Swirl: Will GTA 6 Accept Bitcoin and Ethereum Payments?

Ethereum – ETH

With ETF speculation looming, let’s look at Ethereum technically.  

As it did have a breakout around late May, we can instead use a Fibonacci Retracement tool to measure if there is buying or selling at key levels when measured from the most recent low to high. 

This is different from the Fibonacci Extensions tool, which measures from the most recent high to low. 

Source: TradingView

Bullish Scenario 

Holding at this green box zone is critical now for the bulls, if we can continue to see price hold next targets are previous highs at $3,977. With future targets of $4,292 and $4,693. 

Bearish Scenario

Failure to do so could result in a further retracement down to $3,065.24. 

My Thoughts

It will be interesting to observe these key levels as we draw closer to the likely ETF launch in July. If the experts are right, we might start seeing a bullish market structure on the charts first, before the news releases. 

Toncoin – TON

Developed by the Telegram team, Toncoin is quickly rising as a top player amongst the layer 1 infrastructure chains currently sitting at a $19.41 billion USD market cap and within the top 10. The below analysis has been done with a Fibonacci Extension tool, from the most recent pivot high to low. 

Source: Tradingview 

Bullish Scenario 

Holding and accumulating in this golden pocket zone in green, and staying above $7.71 is very important for the bulls when looking at the market using Fibonacci analysis. 

Bulls stepping in means we could then see previous highs of $8.28 and then key extension levels of $8.70 and $9.22.

Bearish Scenario

Failure to get any sustained traction from buyers could result in new lows under $6.77. 

My Thoughts

TON has been showing great strength, while the whole market has been sluggish. If there is strength or stability across Bitcoin or Ethereum, I would expect it to continue outpacing other altcoins as it currently is. 


See you all again next week.

Keep up to date.

Stay informed and connected! I’m excited to announce my new YouTube channel, Crypto with Pav, where I dive into the latest trends in cryptocurrency, offering insights on what’s coming next and highlighting news and technical structure I believe is crucial. 

I’m also on X.

Cheers!

Pav Hundal
Author

Pav Hundal

Pav Hundal, is a trader at heart. Making the transition from the FX markets to the dynamic world of cryptocurrency in 2017. With a keen eye for both technical and fundamental analysis, Pav places special emphasis on tracking macroeconomic conditions to build narratives around current trends. Currently, he lends his expertise as the Lead Market Analyst at Swyftx.

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