Bitcoin Dips Below $60K as Fed Chair Dampens Rate Cut Hopes

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  • Bitcoin’s price continues to fluctuate, dropping below US$60K multiple times before recovering to US$60,307 as market volatility persists.
  • Despite a strong start with a 68.68% Q1 gain, Bitcoin faced a challenging Q2 with a 12% monthly loss and looming large repayments from the Mt. Gox case.
  • Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warns of an unsustainable fiscal path, impacting market expectations and contributing to Bitcoin’s instability.

Bitcoin has dipped below US$60K (AU$89.4K) for the fourth time in the past 24 hours, as it faces a monthly loss of 12%. At the time of writing, it had slightly recovered trading at US$60,307 (AU$89,837) as per data from CoinMarketCap.

Bitcoin (BTC), 1-day graph, source: CoinMarketCap

Related: Arthur Hayes Says Zoom Out and Focus on Broader Trends, Highlights Bitcoin as Superior Safe-Haven Asset

Looking at BTC’s performance so far this year, data from Coinglass shows that the year began remarkably for Bitcoin, with a substantial gain of 68.68% in the first quarter. Following that huge gain, the second quarter showed the opposite where Bitcoin experienced a loss of 11.92%.

June marked a notable month for Bitcoin as it was only the second month of the year, after April, to close with a loss.

Bitcoin, monthly returns, source: Coinglass

Fed Chair Stirs Markets with Calls of “Unsustainable” Path

The Chair of the US Federal Reserve Jerome Powell said Tuesday that despite the US being back on track to disinflation, more data is needed before any rate cuts can be considered. While US inflation hasn’t risen, it remains above the central bank’s target.

Speaking at the European Central Bank’s Portugal conference Powell said that “The level of debt we have is completely sustainable but the path we are on is unsustainable.”

Powell told AP what he is most concerned with right now:

Getting the balance on monetary policy right during this critical period, that’s really what I think about in the wee hours.

Jerome Powell

Observers had expected seven rate cuts in the US initially – this has been reduced to perhaps one or two for this year. While Bitcoin reacted negatively, the ASX (+0.3%), S&P 500 (+0.6%) and Nasdaq (+0.8%) are all up.

Mt. Gox Repayments Cast a Shadow on the Crypto Market

Meanwhile, the repayments of the Mt. Gox saga still loom over the crypto sector. These repayments are expected to start in July, which we have now entered, meaning anticipation is building.

Founder of Capriole Fund, Charles Edwards, said in a post on socials, that an unprecedented US$9 billion worth of Bitcoin moved onchain, dwarfing previous records and erasing the chart’s history, signalling the anticipated Mt. Gox distributions are underway.

However, the influence of Mt. Gox on the BTC price may be exaggerated. For one, these flows could be picked up by institutional interest – by Spot Bitcoin ETFs simply buying the dip.

Related: Pomp Highlights Growing Investor Confidence in Bitcoin’s Resilience as They Aggressively Buy The Dip

Another reason is that the receivers of the repayments may simply have no desire to sell, as CarlBMenger put it, many Mt. Gox claimants are early Bitcoin adopters who value the currency and would have sold earlier if desperate, as there had been plenty buyout offers – additionally, some market impact is already priced in.

Meanwhile, Fundstrat’s Tom Lee said the impact of any such sell-off would be short lived and actually presents a buying opportunity.

Aaron Feuerstein

Aaron Feuerstein

Aaron Feuerstein is a freelance writer based in Melbourne. His focus is on decentralised finance and the regulatory space surrounding blockchain. He holds a Master's in Accounting. When he is not studying the latest legal case, he enjoys his time as a modest but eager hobby cook.

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