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“My $120k Target May Be Too Low”: Standard Chartered Analyst Raises Bitcoin Forecast as ETF Inflows Accelerate
- Amid positive trade news and US states enacting crypto reserve bills, Standard Chartered’s head of digital assets Geoffrey Kendrick suggests his US$120k Bitcoin target for Q2 is likely too conservative.
- Kendrick now believes his year-end forecast of US$200k “looks very achievable” as the dominant narrative for Bitcoin has shifted from risk asset correlation to strategic asset reallocation and now to substantial capital flows.
- US Bitcoin ETFs have attracted US$1.6 billion in net inflows during May alone, with BlackRock’s IBIT fund avoiding outflows for an entire month while now holding 2.95% of all Bitcoin supply.
- Combined institutional Bitcoin holdings continue to grow, with US ETFs controlling 5.6% of all Bitcoin, global ETFs holding 6.4%, and public companies maintaining 3.4%, creating increasing pressure on the cryptocurrency’s finite supply.
Amid a US–UK trade deal and bullish reports of US states signing crypto-reserve bills into law, crypto markets are rallying. This rally sparks speculation about how high Bitcoin can climb and whether it will break its all-time highs.
Certainly, says Geoffrey Kendrick, head of digital assets at Standard Chartered, adding that his previous targets are not bullish enough.
According to CNBC, in a playful jab, Kendrick wrote:
I apologise that my USD120k Q2 target may be too low.
Geoffrey Kendrick, head of digital assets at Standard Chartered In an April note, Kendrick set the target for BTC at US$120k (AU$188k) for late 2025 due to a “strategic asset reallocation away from US assets” and whale-buying.
Related: Arizona OKs Bitcoin & Digital Assets Reserve Fund as Texas Presses Ahead with Bitcoin Reserve Plan
Targets “Very Achievable”, Says Kendrick
At the time Kendrick wrote:
We expect these supportive factors to push BTC to a fresh all-time high around USD 120,000 in Q2. We see gains continuing through the summer, taking BTC-USD towards our year-end forecast of 200,000.
Geoffrey Kendrick, head of digital assets at Standard Chartered The analyst now says the previous target “looks very achievable”, adding Bitcoin could go much higher as “the dominant story for Bitcoin has changed again”.
It was correlation to risk assets […] It then became a way to position for strategic asset reallocation out of US assets. It is now all about flows. And flows are coming in many forms.
Geoffrey Kendrick, head of digital assets at Standard Chartered Kendrick not only hints at Bitcoin proxies like Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) and Metaplanet, which continue buying up BTC, but also the US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
US Bitcoin ETFs Continue to Expand Holdings
The US ETFs have seen US$1.6 billion (AU$2.5 billion) in net inflows in May already, with only one day of net outflows. Tuesday saw US$85.7 million (AU$133.77 million) in net outflows across the funds; however the largest fund, BlackRock’s IBIT, hasn’t seen net outflows for a whole month.
On April 9, IBIT had its last net outflow of US$89.7 million (AU$140 million) leaving the ETF. IBIT currently holds 620,918 Bitcoin or 2.95 per cent of all supply at a value of US$63.8 billion (AU$99.58 billion).
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Related: Australian Platform Finder Waves Goodbye to Crypto Trading with Swyftx Switch
All US spot Bitcoin ETFs combined now hold 1.17 million BTC or 5.58 per cent of all Bitcoin.
All ETFs – including non-US Bitcoin funds – hold 6.44 per cent of the total 21 million BTC, while public companies – like Saylor’s firm – hold 3.45 per cent.
Countries currently hold 2.52 per cent, with China and the US both holding just shy of 1 per cent of the supply. As reserve initiatives gain momentum, ETFs continue buying up Bitcoin and Saylor doubles down on his efforts; the finite supply has to be shared among more and more investors.
Author
Aaron Feuerstein
Aaron Feuerstein is a freelance writer based in Melbourne. His focus is on decentralised finance and the regulatory space surrounding blockchain. He holds a Master's in Accounting. When he is not studying the latest legal case, he enjoys his time as a modest but eager hobby cook.
