Kalshi and Polymarke...

Kalshi and Polymarket Each Eye $20B Valuations as Prediction Markets Hit $18B Monthly Volume

By José Oramas March 09, 2026 In Kalshi, Polymarket, Prediction Market

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Kalshi and Polymarket are in preliminary talks for new funding rounds that would value each platform at approximately US$20 billion, doubling their most recent valuations of US$11 billion, and US$9 billion, respectively.
Combined monthly trading volume for both platforms reached US$18.3 billion in February 2026, up from under US$2 billion in August 2025, with Kalshi reporting an annualised revenue run rate of approximately US$1.5 billion.
Both platforms face mounting regulatory pressure, including a congressional proposal to restrict markets on warfare and sports.

Kalshi and Polymarket are seeking fresh capital after a sharp rise in trading activity, with both platforms reportedly discussing fundraising rounds that could value them at about US$20 billion (AU$28.6 billion).

That would be a steep jump in a matter of months. Kalshi was valued at US$11 billion (AU$15.73 billion) in December 2025 after raising US$1 billion (AU$1.43 billion). Polymarket was valued at US$9 billion (AU$12.87 billion) in October, when Intercontinental Exchange agreed to commit up to US$2 billion (AU$2.86 billion).

The main argument for higher valuations is growth. Combined monthly trading volume on the two platforms reached US$18.3 billion (AU$26.17 billion) in February 2026, up from less than US$2 billion (AU$2.86 billion) in August 2025.

Kalshi has also reached an annualised revenue run rate of about US$1.5 billion (AU$2.15 billion), according to people cited by the Wall Street Journal.

More Scrutiny

But the expansion is not without its fair dose of intense scrutiny.

US lawmakers Blake Moore and Salud Carbajal have proposed limiting contracts tied to war and sports, arguing that some event markets create broader social risks. Kalshi is also facing a class-action lawsuit over claims it did not pay US$54 million (AU$77.22 million) tied to a market on Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s exit.

Trading activity on both platforms has also raised concerns about information asymmetry after reports of large bets from newly created wallets ahead of major geopolitical events.

Polymarket’s next step is especially important. The platform still bars U.S. users, though VPN access has remained a loophole. It is now planning a regulated U.S. version in 2026, which could materially expand its market.

Kalshi already holds that advantage. As the only CFTC-approved event exchange in the US, it has a regulatory position that may help defend its business even as oversight tightens.