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End of the Rally? Analyst Predicts Bull Market Peak
- Bitcoin has experienced a remarkable 360% rise in 476 days, soaring from USD $15,782 to a current high of USD $71,911.08, repeatedly setting new records.
- Rekt Capital forecasts Bitcoin’s next market peak between late November 2024 and January 2025, based on historical trends of reaching new highs 266 to 315 days post-ATH.
- Current data places Bitcoin in a significant bubble risk zone at 1.75, approaching the high-risk threshold of 2, indicating the possibility of over-speculation and impending market corrections.
Bitcoin had a stellar 16 months, going from as low as USD $15,782 (AUD $23,878) on November 22, 2022, to the current USD $71,911.08 (AUD $108,803.73) making several new all-time highs.
That’s a 360% increase in over 476 days—leaving some wondering when this rally might end.
Related: Bull Run Yields 2,000 Millionaires Daily, Fewer Than Previous Cycle
Analyst Estimates Market Top Not Before End of 2024
Crypto analyst Rekt Capital, with over 415k followers, said in a post on X that he believes Bitcoin’s next Bull Market Top to occur between the end of November 2024 and the end of January 2025.
This is based on historical trends where Bitcoin reaches its peak 266 to 315 days after surpassing its previous All-Time High (ATH).
Rekt notes an increasing trend in the time Bitcoin spends rallying beyond its former ATH before peaking, with durations extending from 268 days in 2013 to 280 days in 2017, and 315 days in 2021. This pattern suggests a potential extension to 280-350 days for this cycle, indicating a peak could be expected from mid-December 2024 to mid-February 2025.
Bitcoin Bubble Risk
But, Rekt is referring to the whole bull market— which is unlikely to continue upward in a straight line—so expect pullbacks on the way.
Data from Into the Cryptoverse—analyst Ben Cowen’s data and market analytics platform—shows Bitcoin may be moving into a riskier phase right now.
Assessing Bitcoin’s short-term bubble risk involves analysing market sentiment, trading volumes, price volatility, regulatory news, and global economic indicators.
The current chart indicates Bitcoin is at a significant bubble risk with a metric value of 1.75, placed in the orange zone and nearing the critical threshold of 2, the red zone which signifies the highest bubble risk.
This level reflects heightened market concern, suggesting potential over-speculation that historically precedes corrections.
Investors should be cautious and consider market behaviour, such as FOMO and speculative trading, along with liquidity and volatility trends. Regulatory news and economic factors also play a crucial role in influencing Bitcoin’s price.
Related: Analyst Reveals Potential for Cosmos Amid Grayscale Altcoin Fund Release
While technological developments and increased adoption can mitigate bubble risk, the current trend necessitates thorough research and preparedness for potential market adjustments, considering the crypto market’s volatile nature.
Author
Aaron Feuerstein
Aaron Feuerstein is a freelance writer based in Melbourne. His focus is on decentralised finance and the regulatory space surrounding blockchain. He holds a Master's in Accounting. When he is not studying the latest legal case, he enjoys his time as a modest but eager hobby cook.
