Seasoned Trader Calls Bitcoin ‘More Scarce Than Gold’

Are ETFs Already Priced in?

Former CNBC Fast Money trader and author of the Bitcoin Big Bang, Brian Kelly, sat down with his former colleagues at CNBC to discuss the recent Bitcoin (BTC) surge. This comes after months of moderate media coverage and interest during a time when retail investors are still missing from the investment picture.

The self-proclaimed ‘Bitcoin Televangelist’ explained the current BTC price movement is largely due to the anticipation of an ETF approval in early January. Kelly stated the current situation caused him some anxiety.

So as it gets higher, as a trader, of course I’m going to get a little scared because you’re saying how much of that is already priced in. We’re getting pretty close to that.

Brian Kelly

Kelly believes we will see pullbacks along the way of this bull market, suggesting 30-40% price drops are possible. However, his long-term view on the number one crypto has not changed and he remains bullish.

Rate Cuts Priced in for 2024?

One of the CNBC hosts asked Kelly if the market had already priced in rate cuts for the next year. Suggesting there may be five rate cuts on the horizon, which Kelly considered to be macro tailwind. Kelly mentioned that the market has been contending with major macroeconomic challenges for almost two years, including rising interest rates and a strengthening dollar. He noted that the Federal Reserve’s role might be complete, while Europe is facing significant difficulties.

He also pointed out that China is dealing with some major issues and that Japan is unlikely to adopt tightening measures. Based on these observations, Kelly concluded that in the context of global liquidity, both gold and Bitcoin are likely to fare well in the current environment.

On Bitcoin Scarcity

Kelly said the 12 to 16 months after the halving are historically the ones where BTC performs best. However, amid all the institutional interest and the buzz around Bitcoin and Ethereum Spot ETFs, he thinks this time could be different.

Kelly pointed to the already higher price of Bitcoin relative to previous cycles and scarcity of the asset, hinting there is only one way – up.

We now only have, I think it’s 900 Bitcoin a day that come out. So that gets cut in half. It’s not a lot of Bitcoin, but what it does do is it makes Bitcoin more scarce than gold. So for the first time in history, you have an asset that is more scarce than gold.

Brian Kelly