Seasoned Analyst Outlines Key Steps for Bitcoin to Surge to Record Highs

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  • RektCapital highlights Bitcoin’s cyclical price peaks following Halving events, suggesting the next peak could occur between mid-September and mid-October 2025.
  • Currently, Bitcoin is about 180 days ahead of its typical post-Halving schedule, indicating the peak may arrive earlier unless the market consolidates.
  • Extended consolidation could align this accelerated cycle with past patterns, aiding in market stability and timing predictions.

Popular analyst RektCapital reminds us in a post about the cyclical nature of Bitcoin. According to his analysis, there’s a notable trend where the price tends to peak a significant number of days following the Halving event – an event where the reward for mining Bitcoin transactions is halved.

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This happens approximately every four years, reducing the rate at which new BTC is generated.

Observations from past cycles show that Bitcoin peaked 518 days after the 2015 Halving and 546 days after the 2019 Halving. Based on these past cycles, if similar trends follow, the next peak in Bitcoin’s price could occur around mid-September to mid-October 2025, according to Rekt’s analysis.


If history repeats and the next Bull Market peak occurs 518-546 days after the Halving… That would mean Bitcoin could peak in this cycle in mid-September or mid-October 2025.

Bitcoin/US Dollar, source: RektCapital/TradingView

Bitcoin Ahead of Schedule, Analyst Believes

However, the analyst said currently the Bitcoin price cycle is accelerating, running approximately 180 days ahead of the traditional timeline. This acceleration suggests that the peak might occur earlier than the historical average unless the price begins to consolidate.

So the longer Bitcoin consolidates after the Halving, the better it will be for resynchronising this current cycle with the traditional Halving cycle.


Consolidation refers to a period where the price stabilises, moving sideways rather than trending sharply upwards or downwards.

A longer consolidation phase post-Halving could serve to realign this cycle more closely with previous cycles, potentially smoothing out the acceleration and bringing the peak timing back in line with the traditional 518 to 546-day post-Halving window.

This alignment would help maintain the predictability of Bitcoin’s price movements in relation to its Halving cycles.

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However, not everyone agrees with these predictions. User Cave Hermit (@BaBig90) predicts the cycle will end around December this year and issues a stern warning. 

Cave Hermit says that holding past a cycle top can lead to great disappointment and result in becoming what they call a “permanent bag holder” having to endure the bear market, waiting for a renewed bull run.

Aaron Feuerstein

Aaron Feuerstein

Aaron Feuerstein is a freelance writer based in Melbourne. His focus is on decentralised finance and the regulatory space surrounding blockchain. He holds a Master's in Accounting. When he is not studying the latest legal case, he enjoys his time as a modest but eager hobby cook.

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