Prediction That Bitcoin Could Hit A$2 Million By 2035 “Pretty Conservative”, Says Swyftx Analyst

Speaking on the latest episode of the Tapping Into Crypto Podcast, Swyftx Lead Market Analyst, Pav Hundal, has labelled a prediction from asset management firm Bitwise that Bitcoin could be valued at around US$1.3 million (AU$2 million) by 2035 as “conservative”.

“I think that’s pretty conservative,” Hundal said of Bitwise’s 10-year outlook, adding “even Strategy — Michael Saylor’s company — their conservative benchmark was a 35% compounded annual growth rate, so it’s not crazy.”

Bitwise’s US$1.3 million figure came from a report the firm published last month that looked at Bitcoin’s long-term price potential.

“We forecast bitcoin will be the best-performing institutional asset over the next decade, with its price rising to $1.3 million by 2035 (a 10-year forward compound annual growth rate of 28.3%),” the report’s authors wrote. 

Tapping Into Crypto co-host Ted Coaldrake also lent support to Hundal’s characterisation of the prediction as conservative, highlighting that a 28% annual compounded growth rate for Bitcoin is way down on its historical performance.

“If you look at the 10 year annual growth rate, it’s 82.5%,” Coaldrake said. “From 10 years to 5 years it [Bitcoin’s annual growth rate] dropped from 82% to 63%. The drop that we’re gonna see from the previous 5 years to the next 10 years is well over half.”

Related: Bitwise Unveils 10-Year Bitcoin Outlook: High Returns, High Volatility Ahead

Four-Year Cycle Still Good for Now, Argues Hundal

The Bitwise report also argued that the four-year Bitcoin cycle is dead. It claims the influx of institutional capital will see Bitcoin’s volatility drop and other factors, such as politics, regulation and macro-economic conditions, will become more important drivers of the market than Bitcoin halvings.

“We believe that bitcoin’s historic ‘four-year cycle’ is no longer relevant, although we caution that bitcoin is still subject to significant drawdowns,” the report notes.

Related: Aussie Analyst Reveals What Traders Should Do This Bitcoin Cycle

Hundal was skeptical of this claim though, saying he would need to see more evidence before agreeing the four-year cycle has become irrelevant.

“The four-year cycle thing’s always been a bit of a weird one — I’m still in that camp of ‘I’d like to see it before I have to believe it,” Hundal said. 

Asked by Coaldrake if he still expects a bullish Q4, which would be in keeping with the traditional four-year crypto cycle, Hundal replied “Q4 — yeah I’m still looking at that as a topping point.”