Pre-Halving Rally Confirmed, But This Trader Has a Surprise in Store

By Aaron Feuerstein February 12, 2024 In Bitcoin, Cryptocurrency
Source: Adobe Stock
  • RektCapital covers the Bitcoin halving phases: pre-halving, rally, retrace and re-accumulation, and a post-halving parabolic uptrend.
  • We’re currently in the pre-halving rally, marked by Bitcoin’s significant price increase.
  • RektCapital advises caution in buying now, predicting a retrace before further gains.
  • DYOR emphasised; while DCA is recommended for many, a study suggests lump-sum investing often outperforms DCA.

Crypto analyst RektCapital has been extensively covering the upcoming Bitcoin halving over the past few weeks and months. In a recent post, Rekt described the phases leading up to the halving as “pre-halving period,” followed by the “pre-halving rally” which is followed by a re-trace and re-accumulation and a “parabolic uptrend” in the coming weeks and months, post the halving.

Now, the trader confirms we are in the pre-halving rally, evidenced by the hike Bitcoin experienced over the weekend, when it surpassed the USD $48k (AUD $73.6k) mark and eyeing the USD $49k (AUD $75.1k) barrier.

Source: RektCapital/ TradingView          

Up, Down or Sideways – Which Way Will Bitcoin Go?

While the recent rally is no doubt exciting for seasoned traders and newcomers alike, everyone probably has only one question on their minds:

So where to from here?


Well, the trader believes we should let things run for the time being and enjoy the show – meaning now is probably not the best time to buy, especially if you believe RektCapital’s theory that we will get another retrace.

While they believe we are just starting the pre-halving rally, which means we can expect further gains, the theory goes that the Bitcoin price will come down first before it continues its rally up to new highs – potentially.

Of course, we’ll get another BTC Pre Halving Retrace. But first the Pre-Halving Rally which has only just started.


DYOR – The Most Repeated, Yet Most Underrated Piece of Advice

While this isn’t investment advice, doing your own research (DYOR) is crucial. Amid varying opinions and potential misinformation, considering a strategy like Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) — where you invest a fixed dollar amount regularly, regardless of the asset’s price — can help mitigate risks and smooth out price volatility.

It’s often recommended for those new to investing, aiming to avoid the pitfalls of market timing. 

However, a 2012 Vanguard study highlighted that, historically, lump-sum investing typically outperforms DCA, suggesting that for those with the necessary risk tolerance, buying in with larger sums at lower prices could offer greater potential returns.

Relative historical probability of outperformance using 12-month DCA and a 60% stock/40% bond portfolio, source: Vanguard

Of course, for those experienced enough and with the skills and stomach to take greater risks another potential strategy is BTFD: Buy the f***ing dip. Just remember and DYOR. 

Aaron Feuerstein

Aaron Feuerstein

Aaron Feuerstein is a freelance writer based in Melbourne. His focus is on decentralised finance and the regulatory space surrounding blockchain. He holds a Master's in Accounting. When he is not studying the latest legal case, he enjoys his time as a modest but eager hobby cook.

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