On The Radar – What to Watch This Week in Crypto

It’s been another bumper week fundamentally for the markets, and it was nice to see double-digit gains across many assets just over 24 hours ago. XRP alone saw an 11% move higher on the back of some massive news. More on this below. 

But as we know crypto moves fast. 

After seeing the overnight price action, my gut feeling is I won’t be surprised if many traders were trapped by the move expecting it to go higher. 

Trapped Bulls

Bitcoin is at a clear crossroads. Prices failed to press through the March monthly open price of US$84,349 overnight from the London and US trading sessions. Simply put, the market failed to see a reason to pay for higher prices.

Since yesterday, we’ve witnessed the market clearly trying to break the next key level of resistance and failing to get any momentum of buying from the bulls. 

To the point where there are now likely trapped longs above the swing failure pattern identified on the chart (marked SFP). A swing failure pattern is a technical pattern that can help identify when a new high (or low) has failed to develop – usually a precursor to a trend reversal. 

I will be watching closely into Monday on how this all develops, but a move towards the lows looks likely. 

But! Let’s cover the positive news we saw this week. 

Related: Blockchain Sleuth Links $20M Crypto Windfall to Convicted Fraudster William Parker

XRP Case Dropped

For context, this case kicked off in 2020, when the SEC sued Ripple, alleging that its sale of XRP violated securities laws. Basically, the SEC was arguing that Ripple operates like a company, and XRP functions like its shares, meaning it should have been registered as a security. However, that court battle has now ended, in no small part on the back of Trump’s appointment of acting chair of the SEC, and pro-crypto Republican, Mark Uyeda. 

In other positive news for XRP holders, the current 3rd biggest crypto asset is among other assets a contender to be the next digital asset available through an exchange traded fund (ETF) in the US. At the time of writing there are 9 issuers with registered XRP ETF applications with the SEC.  

Releasing Economic Pressure

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is responsible for shaping economic policies in the US. They use key data points of inflation, economic growth and job market trends to ensure the US economy has a solid foundation. 

Since the rise of inflation post-Covid, the FOMC’s agenda has largely been to curb it. So far, they’ve been tackling inflation by increasing interest rates (now lowering since 2024) and additional measures that either restrict or remove the availability of money in circulation, this is often referred to as quantitative tightening (QT). One of these measures has been balance sheet rundowns, which we saw a change in stance overnight. 

Balance sheet rundown is a policy that looks to remove cash out of the economy, one way this can be achieved is by the government selling down bonds and not issuing new bonds when maturing bonds expire.  

While we haven’t seen interest rates budge overnight, policy makers have acknowledged that markets are getting tighter, and as a result will be only removing US$5b monthly from Bond markets that mature, instead of the current US$25b monthly cap. This change will be in effect as of April. 

Click here for a look at the statement.

XRP

Middle of the road | XRP, even after its huge announcement, has failed to push above the middle of the range. Simply put, the market is not willing to pay above the average prices of this entire range spanning from December 2024. 

Time to step up bulls | We are now at a crucial decision point. The way I see it, we either see bulls start to step in during this discount window between $1.90 and $2.64, or we risk seeing a move lower. 

Next range of support | The next cluster of price action where we would watch for a reaction is around $1.40. 

SUI

Make or break | Sui has been nestled at the 0.618 Fibonacci level for two weeks now, and heading into the weekly close next Monday really needs to hold this line. 

Next level | Failure to do so, I will be watching for that next Fibonacci level for a reaction at $1.51. 

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