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On The Radar – What to Watch This Week in Crypto
- Fear and greed index plummets as Bitcoin trades to new yearly lows.
- Key inflation data out of the US in the next 24 hours.
- Altcoin Analysis: DOGE and SUI.
The market has fallen to levels of fear not seen since mid-2024. This comes while Bitcoin has fallen under US$80,000. Bitcoin is currently down -21% since the start of February.
We have also seen the cinders from the global trade wars re-ignite, with the US targeting the EU. Donald Trump has threatened to slap 25% tariffs on imports from Europe and is quoted as making an official announcement very soon.
While volatility has certainly picked up in the last few days, we are still awaiting potentially impactful economic data announcements later this week. More on this below.
Related: US Bitcoin ETFs Surpass Record 7-Day Outflow Streak as Billions Leave Funds
Headline Inflation Data Lands Tonight
US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data will be released on Friday at 11:30 pm AEST. This metric is used by the Federal Reserve to guide monetary policy in the US.
Importantly, the Federal Reserve is closely monitoring both inflation and jobs data. Lower-than-expected inflation results on Friday may pave the way for easing in economic conditions in the near future, which would be beneficial for higher crypto prices.
Bitcoin – BTC
The markets have shown their hand this week, with the volatility resulting in a sharp decline. From here I am looking at how the market responds into next week. Looking at the daily market structure, I’m personally prepared to see more downside.
Momentum to the downside | With a break like this, it may take more than just this weekend for Bitcoin to start heading higher.
Fibonacci levels | When measuring this move with a Fibonacci extension, key levels are $79,437, $72,247 and $62,012.
Confluence | The 200-period EMA/SMA ribbon below is between the 0.5 and 0.618 Fibonacci level. That’s an area I’ll be watching closely if/when we get there for buying activity. ($72k to $79k).
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Related: Metaplanet Buys the Dip and Snaps Up $13.3M in BTC with Zero-Interest Bonds
Dogecoin – DOGE
Retracement | DOGE has continued to sell off this week and is approaching the next key Fibonacci level of $0.16692.
Time needed | I believe it is still far too early to expect the price to reverse higher. I would want to see a series of higher highs and higher lows where accumulation is occuring.
Fundamental Narrative | DOGE is the largest memecoin by market cap, and is currently included on altcoin ETFs filed in the US. The SEC has also ruled overnight that memecoins are not securities officially, a landmark moment.
Sui – SUI
Levels below | Similar to DOGE there are key Fibonacci levels just under where the price is currently trading.
Back to breakout | This level at $2.40 is the range at which SUI broke out and went on its multi-month rally.
Wait for confirmation | Time will tell if this range is of interest and gets bought up by the market.
Keep up to date.
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Cheers!
Author
Pav Hundal
Pav Hundal, is a trader at heart. Making the transition from the FX markets to the dynamic world of cryptocurrency in 2017. With a keen eye for both technical and fundamental analysis, Pav places special emphasis on tracking macroeconomic conditions to build narratives around current trends. Currently, he lends his expertise as the Lead Market Analyst at Swyftx.
