On the Radar – Coins to Watch: OM and AAVE

We’re finally here! Interest rates have dropped in the US, and the market has responded with a rally this morning. This follows a long and divisive debate on social media about the direction of US interest rates. 

For those who have been following my articles on CNA, not a huge surprise result. I have spoken about this from a data perspective most of this year. Still good to see it! As inflation has been trending downward and growth slowing in the US, this is a key piece of the puzzle in my opinion of Bitcoin hitting new all time highs. More details below.

Bitcoin is currently trading at $62,000 USD, surpassing the monthly open of $58,960 USD for September. The crypto space’s total market cap has also regained a valuation of $2 trillion USD this week. Before the March correction, this figure stood at $2.7 trillion USD.

First Rate Drop in The US Since 2020

The US interest rate now stands at 5.0%, a sharper decrease than the 5.25% forecasted by policymakers at 4:00AM AEST.

Below are takeaways from the statement released early this morning and the latest US economic projections.

• The Committee has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2%.
• The committee’s expectations show further rate cuts in 2024, with most votes between 4.25% and 4.75%.
• Unemployment is projected to rise in 2024 to 4.2%-4.5%.
• GDP expectations have shifted from 2.2%-2.3% to 2.0%-2.1% for 2024.

Fear and greed currently reads 37.

Related: Fed Announces First US Rate Cuts in Four Years, How Did Crypto React?

Bitcoin – BTC

Prices are currently trading near previous highs heading into the weekend. After breaking and reclaiming this currently smaller range on both sides, below are two price action-based scenarios that may play out from here. 

Bullish Scenario

If the push higher continues to gain momentum, we could see a move into previous July highs of just under $70,000 USD. 

Bearish Scenario

Should the bulls ease off the gas in the coming days, the current range may offer an area for another move to the downside. 

Related: RBA Shifts Focus, Drops Retail CBDC, Prioritises Wholesale in New Roadmap

Mantra – OM

Mantra is another asset that is currently trending above the golden Fibonacci ratio of 0.618, which could suggest a larger move is imminent. 

Bullish Scenario 

Having now pushed off the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio, the ‘golden’ ratio, we could now see a move from the bulls to prior highs of $1.41, and then pushing to newer highs of $1.63 and $1.90. 

Bearish Scenario

Failure to find interest from bulls at these present levels could result in prices falling back to below $1.02. 

Aave – AAVE

Following on from last week, I thought it would be good to follow up on an asset for once. I identified that AAVE could potentially see a pull back before a shift higher, we might be seeing that play out now. 

Bullish Scenario 

Finding support at the 0.786 Fibonacci level, and pushing higher towards $153.72, $176.34 and $205.12. 

Bearish Scenario

Failure to find any interest here from buyers could lead to prices under $135.92. 

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