On the Radar – Coins to Watch

The digital asset space has started the week off on a positive note, with Bitcoin closing last week’s trading off with a modest 7.9% gain and Ethereum with a 14.9% gain. With the Bitcoin halving now just under two months away, we are certainly seeing volatility return to the market.  

US Economic Data Lands Hotter Than Expected

Last week, we saw US inflation data come in higher than expected; this is an interesting prospect as the current stance from the monetary policymakers is that they will rely on data in deciding when interest rates will drop. Early today, the meeting minutes have been released from the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), with the main takeaway statement being that the committee is worried about dropping rates too soon.

Why This Matters

For a bull run scenario, crypto markets would benefit from lower interest. Cheaper money has historically flown into on-risk assets like crypto. But the US Fed stands firm in that it waits for data to trend in the right direction before this shift can occur. 

AI Momentum 

After the recent release of Sora, a text-to-video AI model released by OpenAI, AI digital assets have notably been sailing higher with momentum. While it’s up for debate if blockchain tech and AI have any real-world application together, the market may be pricing in speculations that some kind of breakthrough is coming. Below, I’ll analyse and break down two assets in this sector. 

3. Prompt: A stylish woman walks down a Tokyo street filled with warm glowing neon and animated city signage. She wears a black leather jacket, a long red dress, and black boots, and carries a black purse. She wears sunglasses and red lipstick. She walks confidently and casually.… pic.twitter.com/oQ9HS1WMAW

— Shruti Mishra (@heyshrutimishra) February 16, 2024

Bitcoin – BTC

Following up on last week’s analysis, we now find Bitcoin sitting in the monthly key level. For a full breakdown of bullish and bearish scenarios, check out my latest video on Crypto with Pav. 

Above are two lower time frame scenarios that may materialise in the coming days. 

Bullish scenario 

The market continues to rally off this most recent dip and push higher than $53,000 USD towards the next targets. 

Bearish scenario

A cool-off continues, and Bitcoin is drawn to lower prices, falling under $50,500 USD.  

Reminder! Altcoins are often hyper-reactive to the sentiment on Bitcoin, so I am expecting volatility pending the outcome. 

Fetch.ai – FET

FET positions itself in the AI ecosystem as an open platform for the new AI economy. While we wait for any fundamental adoption, we can look at some long-term technical structures below. 

Mapping out FET using a channel range, we can see that in late 2022, there was a period where accumulation likely occurred when the price fell out of the trend channel. This can be reinforced as an idea, as we saw in early 2023 a new higher high form. Since then, in late 2023, we saw the same trend channel retested and a bounce again higher, leading into 2024. 

Bullish scenario 

We still have upper targets using a Fibonacci retracement range of $1.507 and $2.062. There are also macro long-term targets of the purple channel range. The range midpoint and top of the channel range are areas of interest for reactions. 

Bearish scenario

We have also hit the 0.618 retracement extension level this week ($0.951). So if that was a major level and the market isn’t strong enough to break into a new all-time high – this could be a local top. 

Render – RNDR

Decentralised GPUs are what the Render Network Foundation is building. In a recent move, they are also migrating to the Solana network as part of their long-term vision. This is similar to Helium’s move back in 2023 for their blockchain infrastructure partner. Render’s vision is to provide the necessary infrastructure for the next generation of AI technology, rewarding network participants for donating their idle computer power. 

We can take January’s highs and lows to map a trading range for Render in February. Pairing that up with a Fibonacci retracement extension, we can see that we had quite a positive reaction from the 0.5 level early this month. Since then, we have broken and remained above the January monthly high. 

Bullish scenario 

Bulls remain in control and take Render to new all-time highs above $7.945. 

Bearish scenario

This rally may be over-extended. While we could go higher to potentially the next key Fibonacci level at $7.409, we could see a pullback to the January high to finish off February. 

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See you all again next week.

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Cheers!