After the successful launch of the Spot Bitcoin ETFs on the US stock exchange a week ago, Bitcoin, to many people’s surprise, has done nothing but slide to the downside. 

So was it a sell-the-news event after all? It’s hard to say and a bit early, in my opinion. But, what we can do is look back at the prior performance of Bitcoin in halving years to garner insights. 

(HD image here) https://twitter.com/jjcmoreno/status/1745814498257023243/photo/1 

What’s characteristic in prior cycles is that yearly cumulative returns often shift to negative. It can also be seen that price appreciation returns after the first 90 days. 

So far, 2024 is right on track when looking at historical performance. 

Bitcoin – BTC

Let’s talk about the crossroads Bitcoin is currently at. The March 2022 high of $48,200 USD is a point of significance that we have been tracking for the last few weeks. It was the last monthly high before the market broke down into what we now can define as the bear market of 2022-23. 

(HD Image here) https://www.tradingview.com/x/vuRP8HBE/ 

Technically speaking, there is nothing but the wicks (or tails) of the candles at the March 2022 high. Quite often, this is best described as an exhaustion move, as selling supply was more abundant than buying demand. 

Once price broke below the blue Key Level, we also saw the local prior highs of $43,250 USD swept to the upside yet again fail to go higher (labelled as Sweep #2). A second sign of bulls being exhausted at key levels. 

Two potential scenarios that I am looking for are: 

Bullish scenario 

Market participants step in at these prices to bring Bitcoin back above the blue Key Level. This would mean Bitcoin trading and holding above $44,400 USD—great news for altcoins. 

Bearish scenario

Failing to move above the Key Level. Bitcoin continues to fall towards the next prior range lows of $40,200 USD. 

Bitcoin actions from here become increasingly important, as the whole altcoin market will feel the pain should Bitcoin move lower in price. 

Arbitrum – ARB

With the recent moves on Ethereum, other ecosystem-supporting assets have seen some boost to performance in recent times. Arbiturm is a Layer-2 infrastructure project, to create a robust scaling solution on the Ethereum network. 

There are two potential scenarios based on current market structure that may play out from here. 

https://www.tradingview.com/x/hSHa5N05/

Using Fibonacci, we can see that price is currently moving towards the optimal trade zone (between 0.618 and 0.786).  A potential target using Fibonacci levels again would be the 0.272 extension level, approximately a 40% move from current prices. 

It’s important to call out that any failure and further downward movement on Bitcoin could break the blue key level – resulting in a bearish market movement. The red line path describes what failure may look like. 

Blur – BLUR

Blur has been a standout fundamentally in the NFT exchange space, overtaking OpenSeas in November 2023 and remaining the top dog with a market share of 56.8% and a trading volume reaching a high of $1.07 billion USD in February 2023. 

https://www.tradingview.com/x/sOSjPWAu/

Using range analysis, we can see that on a daily time frame, the most recent high was a deviation event. Two possible outcomes from this technical setup are a move to the mid-range and a move back to the range highs to attempt a breakout. Or a lack of buying pressure could result in a move to the range lows. We also have a key level just above the range midpoint, that could offer an area for a reaction. 

Again, the movements of Bitcoin in the coming days and weeks are likely to impact the outcome. 

See you all again next week.

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