On the Radar – Coins to Watch 13/06

As Bitcoin hovers just below $70,000 USD, things have stagnated for nearly three months, which I’m sure is leading to fatigue amongst many investors. Despite this, there are important updates to discuss. This week brought significant economic news, which I will cover below.

But to start, let’s take a moment to zoom out and refresh our minds on where we might be in the grand scheme of things when we examine the available data. 

There is Time

Historically speaking, when we look at previous market cycles measured from the Bitcoin halving date, we find that we are just past the starting line. 

While past performance is not indicative of future performance, we can draw some insights from this information. A key characteristic we have seen as each cycle has progressed is diminishing returns and volatility. In most cases, it’s taken longer for the cycle top to be put in as the years have gone on. 

We can also observe that four months after halving has had some significance in the past, which would be July 2024 this cycle. Time will tell what plays out.

US Inflation Lower

Overnight, US data indicate that inflation may not be as out of control. Consumer Price Index (CPI) readings for yearly inflation landed at 3.3% when 3.4% was expected. This is a big deal, as a marked point of interest rates coming down is the grappling match with inflation coming in line with expectations and projections. 

Hot Take

From a personal perspective, things are looking better, but we may still not be out of the weeds. While CPI data is favourable, policymakers have yet to take a real stance on immediate easing. On the positive side, Canada and Europe have reduced interest rates. Last night, policymakers stated that only one rate cut is expected instead of three in 2024. It will be interesting to see if this is already priced into the market. 

It’s very possible that Bitcoin will continue to be range-bound until there is a good enough reason not to. If Bitcoin does hold and go sideways without any major sell-offs, it might give altcoins some breathing room. 

Related: Major Players Hold Over 27% of Bitcoin, Signalling Strong Market Confidence and Stability

Bitcoin – BTC

Since our last update, Bitcoin has failed to move through the most recent highs at $72,000 USD. On Tuesday, it swung below previous lows around $66,000 USD. 

Looking at the current range described in the image below, the purple arrow shows this deviation and technical reclaim. Now, we play the waiting game to see what happens next. Below are two scenarios I’m waiting to see play out. 

Bullish Scenario

This most recent range low loss and reclaim might have been the move the bulls were waiting for. If so, we may start to see a move towards the range high and then new all-time highs. 

Bearish Scenario

Failure to break out of this current range to the upside could drive us lower again towards the March low. 

Related: Bitcoin Gains Then Tumbles As US Fed Hints Only One Rate Cut In 2024

Solana – SOL

Let’s take a technical look using Fibonacci extensions where bulls or bears might show their hand on Solana. 

Bullish Scenario 

A pushback above the 0.618 Fibonacci ($174.20) would be a good sign for the bulls. This would also create a new higher high. From there, we could then see market participants target previous highs of $210.18 and then the Fibonacci extension levels of $235.80 and $268.38. 

Bearish Scenario

Failure to garner any attention from the market could result in a move back towards the current lows of $116.00. 

Stacks – STX

Looking at Stacks in a similar way using Fibonacci extensions, if we are currently accumulating at these lows, we could see the following bullish and bearish moves. 

Bullish Scenario 

A move above the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio ($3.067) would again create a structurally higher high and potentially set up moves to the higher key levels.

Bearish Scenario

Failure to break about this current high or break about the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio (red lines) could result in a move back towards the lows. 

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See you all again next week.

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