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Is the Bull Market Over? Crypto Analysts Say Retail Sentiment Hits Lowest in Years
- Recent Trump tariffs triggered a market downturn that erased billions in crypto value before markets stabilised at lower levels following tariff postponements.
- Analyst Ran Neuner suggests market exhaustion has set in as all narratives are priced in and investors are fully committed, leaving Bitcoin needing a Federal Reserve pivot or Trump action for continued growth.
- Analysts at 10X Research have turned bearish since the start of February while Swissblock notes failure to breach US$100k has dampened sentiment despite historical patterns suggesting breakthroughs follow boring periods.
- A notable disconnect has emerged between bearish retail sentiment and bullish professional outlook, with Bitwise’s Matt Hougan describing it as “two completely separate worlds” while veteran analyst Henrik Zeberg maintains a strong bull market conviction.
Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies have been trading sideways for the past few days, following increased volatility earlier last week. Donald Trump had dished out tariffs to several countries which caused crypto markets to tumble, wiping out billions.
Related: US Govt Didn’t Order Crypto Debanking: Democratic Rep Testifies, Calls Out Trump’s Bias
After some of the tariffs had been postponed, markets recovered somewhat, but the post-election rally hasn’t yet kicked back into gear.
While the long-term outlook hasn’t changed much, some are questioning whether the bull market is running out of steam.
Sentiment Has Turned Bearish, Say Analysts
Popular YouTuber and analyst Ran Neuner believes the market exhaustion “is real”. He posted on X that the market has priced in all narratives and that all investors have fully committed their funds, leaving little room to buy the dip.
Neuner is convinced that “Bitcoin flows remain confined and no longer filter into Alts” and that there’s only a couple of scenarios that could see the bull run continue:
The only thing that could push this market higher is a fed pivot or some Trump action that increases liquidity! It could happen sooner than you think!
Ran Neuner Analysts at 10X Research wrote that their Bitcoin model has “turned bearish on February 2”, which could see a trend reversal of the “rally that began in November”.
Analysts at Swissblock stated that a failure to reclaim “the psychological threshold of $100K”, adds to the current sluggish sentiment.
However, they also promised a sliver of hope, saying:
But for those who have been in Bitcoin long enough, they know that when price action gets boring, a breakthrough isn’t far away.
Swissblock Retail and Pro Traders Live in Different Worlds: Hougan
Bloomberg’s James Seyffart offered a view on the investment landscape that many altcoin traders probably appreciate, saying that “retail is holding a ton of alt coins and memecoins etc that are down really bad”.
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Related: JP Morgan Survey Reveals Modest Growth in Crypto Trading Plans Amid Market Volatility Worries
Bitwise Chief Investment Officer, Matt Hougan agreed in a post on Crypto Twitter, saying that there’s an “absolutely massive disconnect between retail and professional sentiment in crypto right now”.
Retail sentiment is the worst it’s been in years, while professional investors are extraordinarily bullish. It’s like living in two completely separate worlds.
Matt Hougan, Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Others, like veteran analyst Henrik Zeberg, believe the low sentiment is actually an intensely bullish set-up for a “massive crypto bull market”, with only a small chance (not even 5%, according to Zeberg) that we’ve seen the top for this cycle.
Author
Aaron Feuerstein
Aaron Feuerstein is a freelance writer based in Melbourne. His focus is on decentralised finance and the regulatory space surrounding blockchain. He holds a Master's in Accounting. When he is not studying the latest legal case, he enjoys his time as a modest but eager hobby cook.
