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Analysts Say Bitcoin’s $2.1T Market Cap And $1.2T In Unrealised Gains Signal a Maturing, HODL-Driven Rally
- Bitcoin experienced a 4% intraday rally but failed to surpass US$110k, though it flipped most investor cohorts back into profit after bouncing from US$98k support.
- HODLing behaviour dominates as profit-taking remains muted at US$872 million daily, whilst Long-Term Holder supply reached a record 14.7 million BTC.
- Demand indicators show steady buying pressure with spot-Bitcoin ETFs attracting US$298 million weekly inflows and stablecoin reserves suggesting ample sideline capital.
- Bitcoin’s implied volatility has dropped to two-year lows, with analysts suggesting it’s transitioning from speculative asset to a volatile macro asset similar to traditional markets.
Bitcoin (BTC) has just experienced a 4% intraday rally, falling short of surpassing US$110k (AU$167k).
While it has not hit a new all-time high (ATH) – at least for the moment – analysts said that although many investors are in profit, realising these gains is less attractive than during the previous US$100k (AU$152k) breakout. Glassnode analysts wrote that “investor behavior suggest[s] a renewed phase of HODLing and reduced distribution”.
According to the analysts, Bitcoin’s rebound to roughly US$107k after bouncing off the short-term-holder cost basis (around US$98k or AU$149k) has flipped almost every cohort back into profit. The network now boasts a market cap near US$2.1 trillion and some US$1.2 trillion in paper-gains.
Related: Bitcoin ETF Blitz: BlackRock’s IBIT Tops S&P 500 Giant in Fee Take
HODLing Continues as Profit-Taking Declines
Realised profit-taking sits at just US$872 million (AU$1.3 billion) a day, Long-Term Holder supply is a record 14.7 million BTC, and Liveliness continues to fall – underscoring HODLing:
HODLing appears to be the dominant market mechanic across a plethora of spending metrics, with realized profit taking declining, liveliness continuing to trend downwards, and Long-Term Holder supply surging to a new ATH.
Glassnode On the demand side, the Stablecoin Supply Ratio is hovering near its neutral baseline, suggesting ample “dry powder” remains on the sidelines, while regulated spot-Bitcoin ETFs are still attracting capital, with seven-day average net inflows around US$298 million (AU$453 million) – signs of steady, if not euphoric, buying pressure, as per Glassnode’s analysis.
Bitcoin as a Macro Asset Becomes Less Speculative, Says Analyst
Unless a fresh wave of demand arrives – or price decisively breaks out of the current US$100k to US$110k range – this HODL-driven standoff is likely to persist, the analysts concluded.
Meanwhile, implied volatility has also reduced to two-year lows as the Deribit BTC Volatility Index shows. The index – a forward-looking gauge of Bitcoin’s expected 30-day annualised volatility – distills the full spectrum of BTC option-implied volatilities into a single, continuously updated number.
It has been trending down, implying that “Bitcoin is becoming less speculative and more akin to a volatile macro asset”, Michael Longoria, analyst at GSR, a crypto investment company, told Bloomberg.
Read also: Trump’s Crypto Payday: President Nets $620M Boost, Crypto Now 9% of His Fortune
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Author
Aaron Feuerstein
Aaron Feuerstein is a freelance writer based in Melbourne. His focus is on decentralised finance and the regulatory space surrounding blockchain. He holds a Master's in Accounting. When he is not studying the latest legal case, he enjoys his time as a modest but eager hobby cook.
