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Robust June Jobs Report Fuels Bullish Bitcoin Rally Toward $200K, Says 21Shares
- US non-farm payrolls rose by 147,000 jobs in June, beating expectations despite earlier ADP data suggesting weakness, with unemployment down to 4.1%.
- The strong jobs figures reshape interest rate expectations, dollar strength, and risk appetite â three key factors that drive Bitcoin and crypto market movements.
- Analyst Matt Mena believes steady non-inflationary job growth creates conditions for Fed rate cuts and increased liquidity, potentially pushing Bitcoin toward US$200k.
- Trump’s âBig Beautiful Billâ presents a double-edged scenario for crypto, potentially raising yields initially but ultimately supporting the hard-money thesis if the Fed responds with liquidity injections.
June figures for US jobs came in better than expected, with US non-farm payrolls (NFP) rising by 147,000, a modest uptick, whereas ADPâs report the previous day had pointed in the opposite direction.
US unemployment now stands at just 4.1%, and this stronger-than-expected NFP print is crypto-relevant because it immediately reshapes interest-rate expectations, dollar strength and overall risk appetite â the three macro levers driving daily price swings in Bitcoin and the wider digital-asset market.
Matt Mena, an analyst at 21Shares, believes this could push Bitcoin toward the US$200k (AU$304k) mark.
He sees steady job growth that’s not causing inflation as creating conditions for Federal Reserve rate cuts and increased market liquidity.
In past bull runs, new capital typically flows into Bitcoin first before moving on to altcoins. The analyst views US$200k not as a peak but as a breakout point that would establish a new trading range for Bitcoin, after which altcoins could outperform more strongly.
Related: Arthur Hayes Says Bank Stablecoins to Unlock $6.8 Trillion in U.S. Debt Sales
âBig Beautiful Billâ to Be Signed by Trump â Whatâs in It for Crypto?
And there is also Trumpâs âBig Beautiful Billâ which has just passed its final hurdles and will soon be signed into law.
It remains to be seen exactly how the bill will affect markets â especially crypto â but it feels like a classic two-edged sword for digital assets. It will likely raise yields at first (a headwind) but ultimately bolster the âhard-moneyâ thesis and, should the Fed counter the bond backlash, inject the very liquidity that has powered every major crypto rally.
And if the past is any indication, we may have only a few months left in this bull run.
Crypto analyst Rekt Capital told his viewers that if the 2025 rally follows the 2020 trajectory, weâll likely see the market peak in October â just 550 days after the Bitcoin halving.
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This time could, of course, be different: retail interest remains muted, even as institutional players enter in large numbers (though some argue this may not last), driving demand for Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
Arthus Hayes: Bitcoin Smoke Alarm for Fiat Liquidity
Some believe halvings no longer carry the weight they once did. For example, famous crypto figure Arthur Hayes said that, rather than focusing on halvings, investors should watch central-bank actions.
Now that Bitcoin and crypto are a bona fide asset class [âŠ] everyoneâs responding to it. It has transitioned from this technological digital bearer asset into the best smoke alarm for fiat liquidity that we have globally.
Arthur Hayes Others, including Rekt Capital, offer a different view. He cautioned against discarding time-tested principles, warning: âItâs really important to rely on these metrics because they wonât mislead you as much as throwing everything out the window will.â
Meanwhile, crypto markets seem uncertain about what comes next. Bitcoin is slightly in the red, having lost just under 0.5% over the past 24 hours. The top digital asset currently trades at US$108,985 (AU$165,965), remaining within the narrow range it has held for weeks.
Author
Aaron Feuerstein
Aaron Feuerstein is a freelance writer based in Melbourne. His focus is on decentralised finance and the regulatory space surrounding blockchain. He holds a Master's in Accounting. When he is not studying the latest legal case, he enjoys his time as a modest but eager hobby cook.
