Celeb NFTs and cringy ads — Analysts share their signs of a Bitcoin peak
Celebrities hocking nonfungible tokens (NFTs), big-budget crypto ads, and mainstream brands adopting crypto slang — these are the signs to watch for during the next bull market that could indicate a peak, according to crypto analysts.
The crypto industry is expected to see a major rally in 2024. In the past 90 days alone, Bitcoin
has surged to clock in a 74% price increase. Some analysts expect the next Bitcoin all-time high to come in late 2024.
But are there ways to indicate when the next bull market peak will come? Analysts think there is.
Crypto education platform Collective Shift founder Ben Simpson told Cointelegraph that “when everyone is seemingly making money” is one of his first indicators that the crypto market might be nearing the top.
He says during these times, people he would never expect to will start to talk about crypto, along with how they’re trading it and making money.
“Whenever I start seeing supercars, houses and Rolexes, I’m like: ‘This might be getting a bit toppy.’”
Another of his indicators from the last bull cycle was when crypto exchanges such as FTX and Crypto.com were flushed with cash they “don’t even know what to do with” and splashed on pricey marketing blitzes that saw them take over sports stadiums’ naming rights and Super Bowl ad spots.
View from my condo in Miami, they seem to be dismantling the sign on the FTX Arena! pic.twitter.com/3gaHimxEwy
— Shiv (@shivnull) November 11, 2022
Crypto-related music — such as the 2022 viral song by Randi Zuckerberg, sister of Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg — was “one of those things in hindsight, [where] you just go: ‘Are we actually living in a bubble right now?’” Simpson said.
Fucking hell. “Carpe your crypto diem” https://t.co/ZrTKLPjLLs
— Jake Hanrahan (@Jake_Hanrahan) March 4, 2022
Meanwhile, software engineer and crypto critic Molly White told Cointelegraph the celebrity endorsement of crypto and NFT projects was, for her, “a huge top signal.”
In particular, White pointed to the slew of stars who had NFTs as their social media profile pictures, Kim Kardashian shilling EthereumMAX — who was later fined $1.26 million for her promotion of the crypto — and former teen heartthrob Justin Bieber forking over $1.3 million for a Bored Ape Yacht Club NFT.
Paris Hilton and Jimmy Fallon’s shilling their Bored Ape NFTs on The Tonight Show was also a major top signal for White.
— The Tonight Show (@FallonTonight) January 25, 2022
Other indicators she pointed to were the huge brands such as Adidas and Coca-Cola “jumping on the crypto bandwagon” and the “incredibly cringy social media posts” of brands adopting crypto slang such as “WAGMI” — short for “we’re all gonna make it.”
She shared X (Twitter) posts of big beverage players Budweiser and Pepsi as an example that’s “seared into my brain.”
Thanks, fren! WAGMI
— Pepsi (@pepsi) December 9, 2021
“That was a crazy time,” she said. “It was pretty clear that the bubble was overinflated.”
Simpson said, for him, that such sentiment signals are “the final piece of the puzzle,” and eyeing on-chain indicators is a larger part of estimating the market top.
“Once they start to sell or take chips off the table, that’s a good indication it’s time to start taking profits.”
IG Australia analyst Tony Sycamore prefers to stick to technical analysis — looking at past activity to predict future activity — which “can be useful in assessing future market direction.”
“No one wants to be that person who buys the high before it snaps back.”
One tool he considered useful is the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator — which measures momentum by comparing the closing price with a 50-day moving average to indicate if an asset may be overbought or oversold — to see “bearish divergence.”
Upward RSI momentum is typically thought to point to an impending rally. “Bearish divergence occurs when higher prices are not confirmed by a higher reading of the RSI indicator,” Sycamore explained.
Simpson added it’s also fairly easy to see when new money is moving into the space by watching the amount of crypto held by exchanges and the volume and supply of stablecoins.
“Start to take chips off the table earlier than everyone else,” he said. “Once the music stops, it ends pretty abruptly.”