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Bitwise Unveils 10-Year Bitcoin Outlook: High Returns, High Volatility Ahead
- Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan projects Bitcoin to be the top-performing asset over the next decade.
- He forecasted 28.3% annual growth between 2025 and 2035; highlighting a strong diversification potential.
- Institutional interest is rising as spot ETFs and platform approvals bring new demand into the market.
In the latest Weekly CIO Memo, Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan provides a five-minute insight into Bitcoin’s long-term prospects, previewing the firm’s first-ever Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions for the cryptocurrency.
Hougan’s research forecasts Bitcoin to be the world’s best-performing major asset over the next decade, with an estimated compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 28.3% from 2025 to 2035. That would mean a US$1 investment could grow to roughly US$12.60 (≈AU$19.70) in ten years — far outpacing long-term return expectations for equities, bonds, or real estate.
The memo looks at how Bitcoin stacks up against other investments like shares, bonds, gold, and real estate. Hougan says Bitcoin usually moves quite differently from these assets, making it a useful way for big investors to diversify their portfolios.
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ETFs Drive Interest From Major Platforms
Long-term Bitcoin projections are a relatively new demand among professional investors. Between 2017 and 2024, Bitwise received zero requests for such assumptions. In 2025 alone, the firm has received twelve enquiries from large platforms managing hundreds of billions of dollars in assets.
According to Hougan, this shift reflects the growing recognition of Bitcoin as a core allocation, rather than a one-off opportunistic investment, largely driven by the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024 and their approval on national account platforms earlier this year.
Hougan also cautions that volatility will remain high, albeit declining gradually over the next decade. Institutional adoption metrics underscore this trend: roughly 7% of Bitcoin’s total supply is now associated with ETFs, and corporate treasuries hold over US$80 billion (AU$124.6 billion) in Bitcoin.
He warns that while volatility will ease over time, Bitcoin will remain a high-risk, high-reward asset as institutional adoption grows.
Author
Rachel Lourdesamy
Rachel is a freelance writer based in Sydney with experience within financial services, marketing, and corporate communications in the APAC region. An avid reader and a graduate of the University of Sydney, she covers topics including business, finance and human interest.
