BitMEX's Prediction Market is Now Live

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BitMEX’s Prediction Market is Now Live

By coindesk.com September 13, 2023 In Markets

Current prediction market contracts revolve around FTX bankruptcy claim recoveries, the future of bitcoin ETFs, and Sam Bankman-Fried’s jail sentence.

Johnny Carson plays the part of "Carnac the Magnificent" during an episode of The Tonight Show with Johnny Carson. — Prediction markets generate more accurate forecasts than other methods. (Bettmann/Getty Images)

Crypto derivatives exchange BitMEX has started a prediction market, which allows traders to bet on the outcome of real-world events.

Prediction markets have been around for quite some time but have seen a surge in popularity thanks to Polymarket.

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The exchange, which was fined $1.4 million in January 2022 for unregistered swaps, offers bettors a plethora of contracts from the serious, such as the victor in the first Republican primary debate, to the absurd, like former President Obama’s sexuality, the chance of Russia using a nuclear weapon before the end of 2023, or the existence of aliens.

BitMEX’s prediction market, which its calling its newest derivative product, is going for the former rather than the latter, launching with offerings of prediction contracts on the percentage recovery rate of FTX’s bankruptcy claims, the chance of an approval of a Bitcoin Exchange Traded Fund on or before October 17, and the chances of Sam Bankman-Fried ending up in jail.

“We want our traders to ride the waves of the ever-changing world, hence introducing Prediction Markets at BitMEX,” Stephan Lutz, BitMEX’s CEO said in a release. “This product adds the mojo to crypto derivatives trading, allowing traders to diversify their portfolios and earn returns by predicting outcomes of real-world news.”

Lutz said that more contracts will be added soon.

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“In a bear market with low volatility, prediction markets are a great tool to level up your trading game,” he continued.

Edited by Parikshit Mishra.

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