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Bitget Chief Analyst Says Tron ETF Would Have ‘Nearly Zero’ Chance
- As Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs gain traction in the US, interest shifts toward Altcoin ETFs, with Solana on the forefront.
- Despite legal challenges, Ripple’s CEO remains optimistic about an eventual XRP ETF, boosted by strong demand demonstrated in other fast-growing ETFs.
- Tron faces bleak prospects for a US ETF due to legal issues involving its founder and market dynamics that make a high valuation unlikely.
With Bitcoin and Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs) approved in the US and other jurisdictions, and following the recent approval of options trading for some US Spot Bitcoin ETFs, the attention appears to be turning toward Altcoin ETFs.
The first contender here is Solana, which recently had a Spot ETF approved in Brazil and has a VanEck application pending in the US. Looking further down the crypto market cap, the next potential candidates could be XRP, Dogecoin and Tron.
Related: VanEck Introduces Staking to European Solana ETN, Offering Investors Lucrative Rewards
XRP Fund Maybe, Wen DOGE Fund?
It’s anybody’s guess if a memecoin ETF would ever get approval or even find significant investor interest, also there’s no chatter right now about a DOGE ETF.
However, an XRP fund may not be out of the question. Despite a years-long legal battle with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) over XRP and its sales, the company behind the 7th largest crypto by market cap strongly believes there will be a fund one day.
Brad Garlinghouse, the Ripple CEO, recently said in a Bloomberg interview that it’s ‘just inevitable’ that there will be an XRP exchange-traded fund.
$17 billion has flowed into the fastest growing ETF in history. It clearly demonstrates that there’s demand from institutions and retail to access this asset class.
Brad Garlinghouse, Ripple CEO Earlier this month, Bitwise Asset Management filed with the SEC to create the first XRP ETF. Soon after, Canary Capital Group also submitted paperwork to launch the Canary XRP ETF.
Tron Fund Unlikely, Says Chief Analyst
Next could potentially be Tron, the ninth-largest crypto by market cap, ranking just one spot behind Dogecoin.
While there are exchange-traded products (ETP) for Tron on some markets – like the Tron ETP by VanEck for example, which is domiciled in Liechtenstein – the chances for a US fund may be slim, according to Ryan Lee, Chief Analyst at Bitget Research.
In a note to Crypto News Australia, Lee said that “the chances of launching a Tron ETF are nearly zero”.
Lee cited the SEC lawsuit against Tron’s core founder, Justin Sun, over the alleged illegal issuance of securities.
He also added that in his opinion “Tron will not reach 10 USD”. This is because at that price Tron’s market cap would roughly equal that of Bitcoin and approx. 3-4 times that of Ethereum.
Related: ASIC Slaps Former CEO of Crypto Exchange Mine Digital with Fraud Charges
Lee said that the “current market liquidity is insufficient to support a market cap of this magnitude, making it highly unlikely that Tron could sustain such a price”.
In his view, it’s therefore highly questionable if any trad-fi player would consider a substantial investment in Tron:
Traditional financial institutions are unlikely to consider making large-scale investments in Tron under these circumstances.
Ryan Lee, Chief Analyst at Bitget Research
Author
Aaron Feuerstein
Aaron Feuerstein is a freelance writer based in Melbourne. His focus is on decentralised finance and the regulatory space surrounding blockchain. He holds a Master's in Accounting. When he is not studying the latest legal case, he enjoys his time as a modest but eager hobby cook.
