Bitcoin’s Direction: Bullish or Bearish as the Halving Approaches?

Since last week’s report, Bitcoin has fallen 12% from a high of $71,800 to $63,000 at the time of writing. This drop is significant for any asset, but is it exceptional for Bitcoin? It remains unclear whether bulls or bears are currently in control, although a key daily support continues to defend Bitcoin’s position at approximately $62,000. I had several charts prepared for a Bitcoin breakout, but as described in last week’s article, further confirmation was needed—a confirmation that didn’t occur as Bitcoin failed to break above $71,300.

Alongside this, as mentioned in last weeks article, the USDT Dominance (USDT.D) broke above the symmetrical triangle, indicating that longs were no longer viable. I personally sold my holdings late Friday night after Bitcoin formed what’s known as a Double Top on the 4-hour timeframe, and I am waiting for further confirmation before re-entering the market.

Uncertain Paths: Bitcoin’s Technical Indicators Signal Caution

There are currently arguments for both bulls and bears as we approach the Bitcoin halving, depending largely on how one interprets the data. Personally, I have adopted a more immediate bearish stance, which is why I sold my holdings at approximately $70,000, anticipating further drops influenced not only by my analysis but also by last week’s US economic data (which can easily be tracked on the Empire Platform) and the potential geopolitical tensions between Iran and Israel impacting markets globally.

Currently, Bitcoin is testing the daily support at $62,500, but on the 4-hour timeframe, it has broken its uptrend from February, is struggling to reclaim the liquidity zone compared to previous levels, and we have now seen a Death Cross on the 4-hour timeframe—a significant indicator that Bitcoin’s average price is declining. A Death Cross occurs when the 50 Exponential Moving Average (EMA) crosses the 200 EMA from above. The last time Bitcoin exhibited a Death Cross on this timeframe was on January 19th, and it subsequently crashed an additional 10%. Could this happen again, as Bitcoin attempts to maintain support?

Despite significant selling pressure, the bulls continue to hold at a critical level of daily support, however if support does break and fails to hold I have my next key level of support at approximately $57,000. Only time will tell if this support maintains over the coming days.

Altcoins Under Pressure: Major Cryptocurrencies Experience Significant Declines

Last week, many approached me for insights on why some altcoins crashed by up to 30%. It’s crucial to remember that the real value of altcoins is not in their USD worth but rather in how their value is compared to Bitcoin, measured in Satoshi’s (Sats). Using DOT as an example, despite being one of my preferred coins, it is extremely sensitive to Bitcoin’s movements.

Polkadot (DOT)

The chart below shows DOT forming lower lows in market structure on the weekly timeframe, losing value against Bitcoin, and thus its USD value is strongly correlated with Bitcoin’s price movements. Currently, several coins are nearing weekly lows, which I believe is why we are witnessing such intense declines in the altcoin market, as their comparative value to Bitcoin diminishes.

Solana (SOL)

This concept is particularly important in my opinion for new traders and crypto enthusiasts entering the space. Personally, I always chart both the ALT/BTC pairing and the ALT/USDT to ensure I capture all data points. A good example of how this dynamic can work in the opposite direction is observed with SOL/BTC. Between March 12th and 17th, SOL/BTC surged 52%, leading to SOL reaching $200 while Bitcoin dropped 11%. During this move, the SOL/USDT pair climbed from USD $141 to a high of $210—a 53% increase.

I hope this week’s segment has provided valuable insights. Join us for a Empire Live Market Scan every Wednesday night at 7pm for a FREE session with a coach. Simply register on the Empire Crypto Trading Social Media and Educational Platform.

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