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Bitcoin Premium in Michael Saylor’s Strategy Stock Nears ‘Crypto Winter’ Lows, But TD Cowen Still Sees 200% Upside
- Strategy’s Bitcoin premium is falling, approaching 2021–2022 lows, with a pause in ATM share issuance and bitcoin purchases drawing attention.
- Analysts maintain a bullish US$535 (AU$824) target, forecasting 815,000 BTC by FY2027, despite potential MSCI index removal causing billions in possible outflows.
- Strategy remains a fully operating public company with a US$500M (AU$770M) software business and active Bitcoin accumulation, supporting long-term investor confidence.
Michael Saylor’s Strategy has seen its Bitcoin premium steadily decline, approaching the lows experienced during the 2021–2022 “crypto winter” period. TD Cowen Managing Director Lance Vitanza highlighted that Strategy did not issue any securities through its at-the-market programs and did not purchase any new Bitcoin on Monday, a pause that drew renewed attention to the company’s premium levels.
The premium has compressed sharply from peaks last year, signalling diminished investor appetite for the stock as a leveraged way to gain Bitcoin exposure.
Despite the short-term weakness, Cowen remains bullish on Strategy. Vitanza and fellow analyst Jonathan Navarrete have maintained a buy rating and a US$535 (AU$824) price target, citing expectations that Strategy will hold 815,000 BTC by the end of FY2027.
At that level, the intrinsic value of the company’s Bitcoin holdings would support a per-share value of approximately US$540 (AU$832), with the target reflecting no premium to intrinsic value.
Related: Bitcoin Faithful Rage at JPMorgan as Boycott Calls Surge Over Crypto Index Snub
MSCI Decision Pending
Cowen anticipates that Strategy and other public Bitcoin treasury companies could be removed from all MSCI indices in February, with a formal decision expected in mid-January. While the analysts describe this as “capricious,” they warn of sustained selling pressure, noting that passive-fund outflows could reach US$2.5 billion (AU$3.85 billion) from MSCI indexes and another US$5.5 billion (AU$8.47 billion) if other index providers follow.
JPMorgan has similarly warned of potential outflows of US$2.8 billion (AU$4.31 billion), rising to US$8.8 billion (AU$13.55 billion) if additional indexes divest.
Saylor emphasises that Strategy is a fully operating public company with a US$500 million (AU$770 million) software business and an innovative Bitcoin treasury strategy. Even amid recent market volatility, Strategy continues to accumulate Bitcoin, currently holding nearly 650,000 coins valued at US$57.8 billion (AU$89.0 billion).
Analysts note that while index exclusion may create short-term disruption, Strategy’s long-term accumulation model and broader adoption of Bitcoin in global finance could continue to support the stock.
As of Monday, MSTR traded at US$177.47 (AU$273.50), up more than 4% on the day. Bitcoin’s price, meanwhile, has retreated from highs above US$126,000 (AU$194,040) last month to around US$88,000 (AU$135,520).
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Related: Saylor’s Strategy Buys Over $800M in Bitcoin as TD Cowen Reaffirms Massive Upside
Author
Rachel Lourdesamy
Rachel is a freelance writer based in Sydney with experience within financial services, marketing, and corporate communications in the APAC region. An avid reader and a graduate of the University of Sydney, she covers topics including business, finance and human interest.
