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Bitcoin Hits My Target! What’s Next? A Deep Dive
- TOTAL Market Cap: Hits Last Week’s Prediction: ETF outflows have exceeded $500 million, and over $400 million in crypto longs were liquidated, hitting last week’s market cap prediction.
- $9 Billion Giant: Mt. Gox’s Potential Impact: Could a $9 billion earthquake be on the horizon? Mt. Gox prepares to potentially offload its Bitcoin, sending ripples through the market.
- Bitcoin at Weekly Support: Double Top or Bounce? Bitcoin has hit my predicted target of $58,000-$60,000. What’s next? Will we see a weekly double top or a bounce off a key support level?
The crypto market has experienced significant bloodshed over the last few weeks, but this isn’t surprising as Bitcoin failed to break out of its range, continuing to consolidate between $72,000 and $58,000. The question remains whether these levels will hold. Personally, I’m watching the $58,000 order zone, historically a strong support level. However, the weekly timeframe is starting to show a double top formation. In technical analysis, a double top signifies a potential reversal pattern, indicating sellers are gaining control. This, coupled with the fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD) surrounding Mt. Gox, the German government dumping Bitcoin on the open market, and increasing outflows, has led to a fearful market sentiment.
Bitcoin Targets the Daily 200EMA!
For traders, the 200EMA is a crucial support level, especially on the daily charts. For the first time since October 2023, BTC came very close to touching it, missing by approximately $500. This is a key level I’m watching closely. Typically, major reactions occur at this level, like the recent push from $58,400 back to $60,000 within an hour. However, this reactionary bounce hasn’t given me the confidence to completely reload my bags just yet.
USDT Dominance: Correlations Help Tell the Story
As discussed in my previous articles, the correlation between Bitcoin and USDT Dominance (USDT.D) is negative. As you can see from the chart, USDT.D reacted strongly off the daily support level and is up 17%, while Bitcoin is down approximately 16%. For traders, this is one of the key charts to predict BTC movements.
TOTAL Market Cap Chart: Is It Ready to React?
Looking at the TOTAL chart, it has now hit my target shared last week. Historically, this level has been a positive support level and remains an area of interest. The 200EMA sits directly below this, was tested, and held.
Overall, it’s tough in the crypto market, whether you’re a trader or a bag holder. Bitcoin’s consolidation, ongoing since March 2024, has many crypto enthusiasts frustrated. In my opinion, all indicators and charts suggest that this support level is likely to hold for now. However, do I believe this will be the lowest we fall? No. This is crypto, and anything is possible! I’ve experienced the deepest bear markets alongside some of the most exciting gains. This is the market we choose to be part of, so be patient, use correct risk management, and continue learning on your crypto journey.
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At the time of writing this article, Bitcoin was trading at $61,100.
Disclaimer: The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The author takes no responsibility for any financial losses incurred as a result of trading or investing based on the information provided. Always conduct your own research and consult with a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Author
Matthew Stella
Matt Stella embarked on his crypto trading journey when Bitcoin was valued at just $3,000. As the co-founder and Head Coach at Empire Crypto Trading, Matt excels in Technical Analysis and in pinpointing key areas of price action. He is dedicated to empowering the crypto community through education, offering weekly Market Scans, Technical Analysis tutorials, and leading a vibrant community of crypto enthusiasts on the Empire Crypto Trading platform, where members collaborate to navigate the market. Every Tuesday, he shares his invaluable market insights with the CNA community.
