Bitcoin Halving in 2 Days: Analysts Divided on Potential Impact on Price Movements

  • Bitcoin halving expected soon, may cause initial price corrections but typically followed by rallies.
  • Analysts predict a price drop below US$60k before recovery and a surge after the halving.
  • Post-halving, Bitcoin’s low point could be the foundation for a stable phase before a significant price increase.

Hear ye! Hear ye! The Bitcoin halving is upon us.

The Bitcoin halving, which occurs every 210,000 blocks, is expected to happen sometime on Saturday, Australian Time. Here, you can find out more about the event’s significance and mechanics that halve the reward for miners and reduce the new BTC entering circulation.

The halving which occurs roughly every four years – again, depending on the block production – has often led to corrections around the event and prolonged rallies post halving.

Related: Whale Moves $363 Million in Bitcoin as BTC Struggles to Keep Above $64K


This makes it understandable why people are expecting lower prices – however, analyst Moustache disagrees, stating that he does not expect prices to fall.

Bitcoin/ US Dollar, source: Moustache/ TradingView via X

Based on the moving average he explained that while Bitcoin’s price recently fell below the blue moving average line, price has now moved back above this moving average, which traders often interpret as a bullish development – especially given Bitcoin’s past history:

When this happened in 2012, 2016 and 2020, Bitcoin was just getting started.

Moustache, @el_crypto_prof

The only difference this time, Moustache said, is that it happened before the halving.

BTC Price Could Fall Below US60k, Says IncomeSharks

Another analyst, IncomeSharks, suggested that they anticipate Bitcoin’s price will fall below US$60k (AU$93k), which they believe will trigger a wave of selling from panicked investors. The rationale is that there are likely holders who are currently optimistic, thinking that the US$60,000 level will hold as support.

Bitcoin/ US Dollar, source: IncomeSharks/ TradingView via X

IncomeSharks seems to anticipate that breaking this psychological support level and shaking out these optimistic holders is a necessary step before the market can recover and rally during the next halving event, which they refer to as a “hate halving rally.” 

This implies a belief that the market needs to eliminate weak or anxious holders to set the stage for a more substantial and healthier price increase later on.

Bitcoin/ US Dollar, source: RektCapital/ TradingView via X

Crypto trader Rekt Capital added that the halving is setting Bitcoin up for the next phase of the bull run.

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Rekt says after the price of Bitcoin drops just before the halving, that low point becomes the groundwork for a period where the price stabilises. Once this stable period is set, it’s expected that the price will eventually start increasing significantly, according to Rekt. 

Aaron Feuerstein

Aaron Feuerstein

Aaron Feuerstein is a freelance writer based in Melbourne. His focus is on decentralised finance and the regulatory space surrounding blockchain. He holds a Master's in Accounting. When he is not studying the latest legal case, he enjoys his time as a modest but eager hobby cook.

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