Bitcoin Begins Recovery, Analysts Weigh in on Future Path

What a rollercoaster the past few days have been. First, we saw Bitcoin reach new all-time highs at USD $73,750 (AUD $112,328). Then, the largest crypto by market cap dived as low as USD $64,887 (AUD $98,829) over the weekend, only to recover to USD $67,696 (AUD $103,117) at the time of writing.

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While drawdowns of 10-12% like these are not unusual in crypto, they certainly leave many scratching their heads about what’s next for BTC. As memecoins and AI-related coins continue to rally, Solana is the only large crypto to do so.

So, will Bitcoin continue the bull run from here on or will we see further corrections? While no one can say for sure, the opinions of market analysts can give us a good idea of the overall sentiment.

Rally Coming, But No New Top?

Macroeconomist Henrik Zeberg has drawn some interesting conclusions. First, he believes we will see a rally up to around USD $72k (AUD $109k) before we see further corrections. Although he doesn’t believe this marks the end of the bull run, his prognosis doesn’t reveal when we can expect new highs.

Notably though, in his role as a Swissblock analyst Zeberg made the correct call for a correction just hours before it happened—saying not even Bitcoin gets to rally up in a straight line and that it was time for a cool-down.

Bitcoin Halving One Month Away

Crypto trader/analyst Rekt Capital agrees with Zeberg in the sense that we may see a bit more pain short-term. The Bitcoin halving is now only a month away and Rekt reminds investors that past halvings have usually seen a deep retrace in the 2-4 weeks prior.

#BTC

In 3 days, Bitcoin will officially enter the "Danger Zone" (orange) where historical Pre-Halving Retraces have begun

Historically, Bitcoin has performed Pre-Halving Retraces 14-28 days before the Halving

In 2020, this retrace was -20% deep

In 2016, this retrace was -40%… pic.twitter.com/t0EHA6bpWY

— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) March 16, 2024

The analyst challenges the narrative that “this time is different,” saying even if that’s the case, that doesn’t protect BTC from a correction.

And Rekt was right in the past too, when predicting the pre-halving rally roughly 60 days before the halving. It will remain to be seen if we see further draw downs from here on or if the ETF narrative indeed changed things.

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Analyst Michaël van de Poppe for one, is drawing comparison to the 2016/17 cycle, hinting at a pre-halving 30-40% correction from the peak.

In terms of' impact' and' growth, ' the current cycle is heavily comparable to the 2016/2017 cycle.

Comparable price action on #Bitcoin pre-halving, in which a correction of 30-40% is likely from the peak.

That peak is the trigger for Altcoins, as Dominance drops from here. pic.twitter.com/AzPV9A5XpB

— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) March 16, 2024

This would mean in the next four weeks we could see sub-50k (AUD $76k) Bitcoin again. Something some—like CEO of Galaxy Investment Mike Novogratz—have said we are unlikely to see again.