Ben Cowen Unveils Bold Predictions for Bitcoin Halving

By Aaron Feuerstein January 23, 2024 In Bitcoin
  • Ben Cowen suggests that, while current market patterns echo those of 2016, future movements remain unpredictable.
  • He discusses the interplay between Bitcoin and Ethereum, noting that significant movements in Bitcoin often precede a downturn in the Ether-Bitcoin pair.
  • He further emphasises the importance of a consistent, Bitcoin-heavy investment strategy, acknowledging the risks and potential errors.

History Doesn’t Repeat, But It Rhymes

In his latest video on Bitcoin and the Halving cycle, Ben Cowen suggests that the market could move in any direction – up, down, or sideways – and highlights the inherent risks in the market, particularly around the cycle times.

Cowen notes that the current market pattern closely resembles that of 2016, with structural similarities such as breaking out of certain levels, back testing, and then potentially retesting breakout points.

Bitcoin’s fair valuation for the 2024 halving, as predicted in 2021, source: Ben Cowen/YouTube.

Cowen also reflects on his past predictions, acknowledging inaccuracies, such as a video made in 2022 predicting a drop and then a breakout, and another made around the 2020/21 halving where he projected a “fair value” of Bitcoin at USD 40k to 50K for the 2024 halving, a prediction that seemed unrealistic at the time but didn’t entirely play out as expected.

And I said that in the fourth halving the fair value, the quote/ unquote fair value will be 40 to 50K, which again, I mean at the time it seemed absurd and you can see that the path I drew out did not play out at all, right?

Ben Cowen

Insights into Bitcoin’s Future Post-Halving

Cowen then further discusses the relationship between Bitcoin and Ethereum, noting that significant movements in Bitcoin often lead to a downturn in the Ether-Bitcoin pair, usually after a couple of months. He observes that this pattern can be influenced by factors like rate cuts and seasonality, suggesting that a more durable Bitcoin move might not occur until around April or May.

Bitcoin dominance in ETH/ BTC chart, source: Ben Cowen/ YouTube

Cowen also points out that, while Bitcoin rallies often cause Ether to weaken against Bitcoin, there are instances where both can decline simultaneously. He acknowledges the market’s unpredictability, citing past events that caused significant drops in Bitcoin’s value, and notes that while history offers some guidance, future market movements, including flash crashes or recoveries, cannot be guaranteed.

We All Get It Wrong Sometimes

Finally, he emphasises the importance of maintaining a consistent investment strategy in the volatile Bitcoin market, acknowledging the risk of Bitcoin retesting its lows, as well as the possibility of this not occurring. He advises investors to be prepared for both scenarios, maintaining a Bitcoin-heavy portfolio as a hedge.

Cowen argues that while Bitcoin may recover even in a hard landing scenario, the same can’t be said for all altcoins. He reflects on his past advocacy for a Bitcoin-dominant approach, noting the increase in Bitcoin dominance despite scepticism, and maintains that this strategy has proven effective, though he acknowledges the potential for being wrong about the continued rise in dominance.

We talked about the Bitcoin dominance. If you think dominance is going to go higher over the longer term – which a lot of people have given me crap for that view. Those people can laugh all they want, but they were wrong. Dominance has gone up a lot and I think it’s going to keep going up now.

Ben Cowen

Aaron Feuerstein

Aaron Feuerstein

Aaron Feuerstein is a freelance writer based in Melbourne. His focus is on decentralised finance and the regulatory space surrounding blockchain. He holds a Master's in Accounting. When he is not studying the latest legal case, he enjoys his time as a modest but eager hobby cook.

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