Aussie Trader Calls for Caution on Bitcoin, Offers Interesting 2024 Forecast

From Dominance to Diversification into Altcoins

A recent video by Australian macro analyst Jason Pizzino focuses on the Bitcoin market cycle, divided into yearly phases. The first year, represented in orange, is primarily a year for Bitcoin, although some altcoins also performed well. Pizzino notes the immense growth in the number of cryptocurrencies, contrasting the current market with that of 2017, which saw a significant increase from 3,000 to over 20,000 cryptocurrencies. The current scenario is described as having an overwhelming number of cryptos, including NFTs and various projects.

Pizzino says the second year is a period characterised by a shift where some investments move from Bitcoin to altcoins.

Year three is described as predominantly an altcoin year, when, despite Bitcoin still making gains, the focus shifts significantly towards altcoins. This phase is marked by retail mania and is often perceived as the bull market. However, Pizzino clarifies that, in his analysis, the bull market begins right from the low point, marked by a significant rise, in this case, 140 percent, signalling the start of a bull market.

But for the masses, the feeling still isn’t that of a bull market. A bull market feels like a top. If you’re just new to the game, then you’re probably waiting for that feeling, the thing that happened in 2021 – when everyone’s excited and you just see a lot of stuff pumping and, you know, just absolutely going nuts in very short amounts of time.

Don’t Wait for a Late Bull-Run

Pizzino then notes that both the six-month and twelve-month outlooks indicate good buying opportunities, with a particular emphasis on the more favourable prospects in the twelve-month period compared to the previous six months. This implies a strategy of looking towards longer-term market developments and potential profits over a year, rather than seeking immediate returns in a shorter timeframe.

Pizzino points out that many investors still expect bull market conditions to return, even halfway through the unfavourable fourth year, as was observed in 2021. During this time, price levels above US$ 25,000 to US$ 30,000 were still associated with bull market sentiment. However, a significant breakdown through critical lows shifted the market sentiment to panic, denial, and capitulation, leading to a very sour mood among investors.

He notes that the majority of market participants operate on feelings rather than data-driven strategies, which leads to misconceptions about market conditions.

They don’t have a strict plan. They don’t have anything measurable so that they can build on that next time. It’s just a lot of fluff – they still expect the bull market to occur anytime through probably about halfway through that 4th year.

Jason Pizzino