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ASX Trader Explains Bitcoin’s Fall Below $100K — and the Hidden Signals Pointing to a 2026 Market Trap
- David Bird, aka. ASX Trader, has told the Tapping Into Crypto podcast he believes Bitcoin is behaving predictably and remains relatively healthy after its recent drop below US$100k.
- Bird warned a convergence of cycles and trends will see 2026 be a particularly bad year for all financial markets, including crypto.
- If there is to be an alt-season before this downturn, Bird said the chart to watch is ‘others dominance’.
Investing educator David Bird, aka. ASX Trader, believes Bitcoin’s recent highs and its later pullback below US$100,000 were both predictable based on an analysis of market sentiment, data and market cycles.
Speaking on the latest episode of the Tapping Into Crypto podcast, Bird said Bitcoin hasn’t done anything out of the ordinary.
“So no, the market didn’t do anything unexpectedly — it’s definitely showing some weakness there. That last pump up to US$125k was lower volume with lots of divergence,” Bird explained.
Bird highlighted Bitcoin’s recent divergence from the share price of Bitcoin treasury firm, MicroStrategy, suggesting it potentially signalled weakness developing in the sentiment around Bitcoin.
Last time Bitcoin made a new top, MicroStrategy didn’t, and MicroStrategy is leveraged Bitcoin essentially — it’s up around 3700% since its low, while Bitcoin’s up 500%. So, you’ve gotta think, if it’s leveraged Bitcoin why has it made a lower high when Bitcoin’s made a lower high at that last part?
David Bird aka ASX Trader Bird also pointed out that Bitcoin’s all-time high in October coincided, down to the day, with the date of the expected top based on Bitcoin’s halving cycle.
“The exact day of the halving cycle, if you follow that, was October 6-7. So funnily enough, Bitcoin topped on the exact day the halving cycle said it should’ve topped.”
Bird added that he believes Bitcoin is currently in relatively good shape, despite having retraced its recent highs.
“At the moment Bitcoin is healthy, it’s come down to a normal ‘zag’ retracement. As long as it holds above US$90k it’s completely fine.”
Related: Bitcoin User Accidentally Pays US$105K Fee to Send Just US$10
Converging Cycles Suggest 2026 Could Be a Bad Year For Markets, Says Bird
Discussing the longer term outlook for Bitcoin, crypto and the more traditional financial markets, Bird said there were signals that 2026 could be a tough year for investors.
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“There’s a lot of things pointing to 2026 being a year to be very cautious,” Bird said, adding “you’ve got the Benner cycle, real estate cycle…it’s kind of a year you should really start playing defence.”
Bird wasn’t sure how these broader cycles might impact crypto, suggesting crypto may see a pump before the broader market downturn hits. Or it may have already topped and simply follow the other markets down to new lows before slowly recovering.
I don’t have the answer. All I know right now is the ‘others’ chart [crypto outside the top 10 by market cap] is bearish, crypto in general is bearish — but that could change next week.
David Bird aka ASX Trader Related: Bitget Exec “Firmly” Believes We Won’t See an Altseason This Bull Run
In terms of the potential for an alt-season, Bird isn’t sure. The trading educator said cryptocurrencies outside the top 10 by market cap have actually been in a bearish trend against gold since 2021, but if there is to be a turn-around and a new alt-season, the chart to watch will be ‘others dominance’.
“You want to make sure ‘others dominance’ is going up — ‘others’ is all the coins after 10, so 11 onwards [as measured by market cap] — and the ‘dominance’ means it’s outperforming,” Bird explained.
“So if we have alt-season that means that your small caps, or small coins, are going to be outperforming your large caps. So that ‘others dominance’ needs to be going up — that’s your number one chart…‘Others dominance’ is a key, key chart.”
Author
Jody McDonald
Jody is a Brisbane-based freelance writer who specialises in writing about business, technology, and the future of work.
