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Analysts Say If This Happens It Could ‘Trap Bears’ Sending Prices Higher
- Bitcoin reached a new all-time high of US$108,268 on December 18, but subsequently dropped 14% as the anticipated Christmas rally failed to materialise.
- Trading volumes have decreased significantly, with a 64% reduction in the past week compared to the previous week that saw Bitcoin’s record high.
- Analysts from Swissblock and Santiment suggest a potential year-end rally remains possible, particularly if whale accumulation increases despite low retail participation.
Bitcoin and the broader crypto market have been very shaky over the past few days, with the so-called Christmas rally being cancelled this year. BTC made a new all-time high of US$108,268 (AU$174,154) just days before Christmas on December 18, but has lost nearly 14% since then.
Related: Bloomberg: Difficult for Donald Trump to Keep ‘Bitcoin Made in USA’ Promise
Others have also not fared well, with all major cryptos losing the gains they made in the lead up to the festive season.
At the time of writing, one BTC is trading for US$93,357 (AU$150,139), while Ethereum is down to US$3,347 (AU$5,382), Solana trades for just US$189.81 (AU$305.26) and XRP hovers around the US$2.10 (AU$3.37) mark.
Year-End Rally Still a Possibility, Say Analysts
That may all not look too promising, but according to Swissblock analysts “it is still possible that Bitcoin has one last card up its sleeve to deliver a bullish move that could turn into a year-end rally”.
In a recent note to investors, they wrote that quiet trading periods in Bitcoin could unexpectedly shift, catching pessimistic traders off guard and sparking market activity.
Although volume remains low, there is potential for a movement that could wake up market participants and trap bears expecting a price collapse. Low-volume periods demand greater caution, as Bitcoin’s apparent inactivity can often be misleading.
Swissblock Despite the pressure from low volume and liquidity, Bitcoin’s price momentum is still in bullish territory, teetering on the brink of either direction, they added.
We have reasons to believe [price momentum] will hold and rebound in the final days of the year and the first week of 2025.
Swissblock As per the analysts, with a current trading range between US$90K and US$100K, the market direction is a little unclear. Traders are awaiting a breakout to clarify the trend as the year closes and the new one begins.
Santiment: One Final Pump Possible
Although long-term holders are taking profits, the analysts believe the “selling pressure is gradually losing intensity”.
For prices to continue higher, levels of profit taking need to first stabilise and large volumes of selling needs to ease, Swissblock concludes in the analysis.
Related: Wintermute Analyst Says MicroStrategy Playbook Could Catch on, Drive 2025 Crypto Demand
Santiment analysts add to this that the end of 2024 is seeing low trading volumes right across crypto markets.
Overall, there has been -64% less trading in the past week compared to the previous week (which included Bitcoin’s all-time high).
Santiment That’s hardly surprising, as this time of year is usually quiet. Nevertheless, the analysts believe “lack of retail participation” may see strong whale accumulations and could therefore lead to “one final big unexpected 2024 pump”, despite retail absence.
Author
Aaron Feuerstein
Aaron Feuerstein is a freelance writer based in Melbourne. His focus is on decentralised finance and the regulatory space surrounding blockchain. He holds a Master's in Accounting. When he is not studying the latest legal case, he enjoys his time as a modest but eager hobby cook.
