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Analysts Keep Eyes Firmly On $135K Bitcoin Target Despite Short-Term Risks
- Crypto market shows downturn with major assets like BTC and ETH falling, and the Fear & Greed index indicating fear.
- Dan Gambardello targets a US$135K Bitcoin by 2025, despite potential short-term declines.
- Timothy Peterson predicts a 30-60% BTC increase this quarter, eyeing US$100K by year’s end.
- Matt Hougan links Bitcoin’s potential US$80K rise to US elections, economic changes, and a lack of negative surprises.
The crypto market is teetering on the edge of a cliff right now. The Fear & Greed index has dropped into Fear territory once again, after days in the Neutral zone. Meanwhile, most major assets are down, including BTC (-2.7%), ETH (-2.8%), SOL (-4%), XRP (1.47%), ADA (-1.9%) and AVAX (-2.6%).
Despite Short-Term Risk Target Remains Firm in Sight
According to analyst and founder of Crypto Capital Venture, Dan Gambardello, we may see more short-term pain, but he has his eyes firmly set on a target of US$135K (AU$200k) for Bitcoin by September 2025.
He adds that although there’s no guarantee what’s next, we are likely to be at the start of a massive rally. He bases his thesis on past data and the broader economic backdrop, or as he puts it, “structure that we have on the macro”.
Related: ChainLink Unveils Exciting Update in Bid to Unlock Bitcoin’s Potential
Timothy Peterson, economist and author of ‘Metcalfe’s Law as a Model for Bitcoin’s ₿ Value’, assumes that we see an upside even sooner. According to his analysis, we can expect BTC to make gains of 30-60% by year’s end, potentially hitting US$100K (AU$148.7K).
I would expect a gain of about 30-60% this quarter. I’d say there’s a 40% chance of $100k by the end of the year.
Timothy Peterson 
The Only Way Is Up
Though, in all honesty, the more analysts you ask about where they see Bitcoin’s price by the end of 2024, the more conflicting answers you’re likely to get. Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan says price predictions are “conditional” – or, in other words: it depends.
Price predictions are conditional. They depend on what happens in the world. With that in mind, here’s what I think needs to happen for my $80,000 price prediction to come true by year’s end.
Matt Hougan, Bitwise And what does need to happen for US$80K (AU$118.9K)? Not much, Hougan says.
Three things, according to the analyst, are really all that matter for the rest of 2024: US elections, the economy (rate cuts and a potential stimulus) and “no major negative surprises”.
Crypto has a history of unexpected events (Mt.Gox, FTX and Luna ring a bell) wreaking havoc on investors’ portfolios.
Related: Standard Chartered Predicts SOL 5X if Trump Wins Election, BTC $200K Regardless
Hougan also said that while Bitcoin can thrive independently, a broader altcoin rally could accelerate its price surge.
Regardless, given that Bitcoin already made good gains this year, institutional interest keeps increasing and people like Larry Fink are publicly talking about Bitcoin “taking over the world”, the only way is up – it just depends how fast.
All this suggests to me that we’ll get to $80,000 (and much more) next year, almost regardless of news developments. But if we want to get there by year’s end, the playbook above could help.
Matt Hougan, Bitwise 
Author
Aaron Feuerstein
Aaron Feuerstein is a freelance writer based in Melbourne. His focus is on decentralised finance and the regulatory space surrounding blockchain. He holds a Master's in Accounting. When he is not studying the latest legal case, he enjoys his time as a modest but eager hobby cook.
