Amid Bull Market Speculation, Crypto Banter Says Bitcoin Would Be at $30k if Not for This Detail

  • Fred Krueger dismissed the impact of Bitcoin halvings, emphasising that institutional demand for Bitcoin ETFs will drive future prices.
  • Krueger predicts a decade-long bull market for Bitcoin, akin to historical equity markets, fuelled by shifts in the investor base.
  • Despite historical patterns of halvings and bull markets, Krueger views the supposed causality as illusory, citing other factors like Ethereum’s rise in 2017.

Fred Krueger and James Lavish spoke to Ran Neuner on his Crypto Banter show about the recent bull market and the lack of impact by the Bitcoin halving.

Krueger dismissed the importance of Bitcoin halvings, suggesting they no longer significantly impact Bitcoin prices due to the minimal supply change they now represent. In his view, it’s demand, particularly for Bitcoin ETFs, which will be the primary driver of Bitcoin prices moving forward.

Related: Analyst Forecasts More Choppy Bitcoin Trading and Pain Ahead

Bull Run to Last Decade?

Krueger predicts that large financial institutions, which control vast amounts of capital, will be crucial in determining the extent of investment in Bitcoin over the coming years.


These financial institutions who control trillions of dollars that can be allocated to this – are they going to invest over the next cycle? Are they going to put in $200 billion, $500 billion? What’s the number that they’re going to put into this market.?

Fred Krueger

He compares the potential future of Bitcoin’s market to long-lasting equity bull markets – specifically the Nikkei bull market from 1950 to 1990 – suggesting that Bitcoin could experience a prolonged bull market that lasts for a decade.

Nikkei 225 Index – 67 Year Historical Chart – log scale, source:

He sees this driven by a fundamental shift in the investor base from traditional players to more retail and institutional investors, including average Americans investing through retirement accounts.

I think this portends a very long bull market in Bitcoin and it could last a decade.

Fred Krueger

Halvings No Longer Cause of Bull Runs

Krueger said that the four-year cycle often discussed in crypto contexts isn’t mathematically precise. Despite there having been four halvings and four bull markets, they haven’t aligned as closely as some might suggest.

The fact that the last bull market actually started a year before a halving, contradicts the notion that halvings directly cause bull markets. He suggests the perceived causality might be more illusion than reality.

Citing the 2016 halving as a “non-event,” he recalls that despite minimal impact at the time, the market soared in 2017 due to factors unrelated to Bitcoin, particularly due to Ethereum’s rise and other market dynamics like ICOs.

Neuner agreed, saying Bitcoin is in a bull market due to the institutions, not because of the halving.

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Asked by Krueger where Neuner believes BTC would be without the institutions, he simply said:

I think it would be back at $30,000.

Ran Neuner

Aaron Feuerstein

Aaron Feuerstein

Aaron Feuerstein is a freelance writer based in Melbourne. His focus is on decentralised finance and the regulatory space surrounding blockchain. He holds a Master's in Accounting. When he is not studying the latest legal case, he enjoys his time as a modest but eager hobby cook.

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