Is the Drop in Bitcoin Shorts Evidence of Bears Retreating?

July 20, 2021, 11:15 AM AEST - 2 months ago

Sitting below 55 percent from its peak, Bitcoin has been stuck tracking sideways for the past three months but is managing to maintain a crucial psychological resistance level above US$30,000 as bulls and bears squabble over whether or not the bull market is over.

While short-sellers have been having all the fun recently, it is savvy long-term retail investors who have been accumulating BTC at prices that can only be seen by Bitcoin believers as bargain-basement specials.

On-chain analyst Willy Woo predicts that Bitcoin could soon resume its bullishness: 

I’m expecting price to break from its bearish sideways band in the coming week followed by a recovery to the $50k-$60k zone before some further consolidation.

Willy Woo

As Woo explains, Coins are moving away from speculators to long-term investors (strong hands) now at a rate unseen since February when price propelled from $30k to $56k.”

Spot exchange net flows on a two-week moving average. Source: Willy Woo Newsletter

On July 17, Woo tweeted: “It’s retail that drives Bitcoin bull markets. When they stop buying, that’s a bear market warning. They haven’t stopped buying.” From his survey, it seems that bull sentiment has the majority, albeit not by much.

Others Expecting a Bitcoin Spike

Scott Melker, a popular trader and Bitcoin analyst, says that each time the BTCUSDSHORTS positions on trading exchange Bitfinex drop, it leads to an increase in Bitcoin spot prices. He too predicts this pattern will soon see a bullish reaction, and in that he’s not alone.

As Crypto News Australia reported earlier this month, much of Bitcoin’s 2020 gains were erased in the three-month period to July as its price slid 43 percent amid FUD relating to China and environmental concerns.

Also earlier this month, HODLers enjoyed gains for the first time in weeks as BTC surged more than 5 percent overnight. This was largely attributed to whales accumulating over 60,000 coins in a single day, worth US$2.7 billion.

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