Probability of Bitcoin Hitting $100k by the End of the Year is 3.2%

October 01, 2021, 9:45 AM AEST - 2 weeks ago

At the current price, bitcoin (BTC) is less likely to exceed the long-sought US$100,000 price mark this year than it was about seven months ago. 

According to options-based data from Skew, the probability of bitcoin reaching the mark in December has declined to 3.2 percent, while for October, the likelihood is around 0 to 1 percent. There is a slightly higher probability of bitcoin exceeding that price level by next year. 

This decline, as per the data, is a result of poor pricing in the bitcoin options market. Many options traders seem to be uncertain about the current market condition, probably because of the sudden correction in price to the lows of US$40,000 amid the crackdown in China. During the bull market earlier this year, traders were seen betting big on the rally, which raised the probability to over 20 percent. Back then, in March, bitcoin was priced around US$55,000.

Crypto Twitter Still Anticipates $100k Bitcoin Price in 2021 

Regardless of the odds, many still believe bitcoin could reach US$100,000 later this year. A fortnight ago, analyst Benjamin Cowen conducted a poll to that effect and about 52 percent of the 12,343 respondents agreed. 

In Australia, many investors have predicted that bitcoin will cross A$100,000 (US$72,310) by the end of the year. 

Former hedge fund manager and economist Raoul Pal recently stated that bitcoin could reach as high as US$300,000 given it “usually goes 5x to 10x within three months”. Pal added that the rally could be driven by the introduction of a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the US or more dollar printing by the FEDs.

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