Old hands selling out metric shows Bitcoin price at risk of HODLers dumping

Tuesday 20 October 2020, 3:37 AM AEST - 1 month ago

Old hands are selling their Bitcoin (BTC) holdings, according to glassnodes Coin Dormancy metric. As shown below, dormant addresses selling BTC marked previous tops in BTC.

e2446599-22fa-4056-8c42-ffe95295d1cf.pngCoin Dormancy of Bitcoin. Source: glassnode

On-chain analyst Willy Woo said old hands reliably sold the top until the most recent price cycle. He wrote:

Dormancy is a measure of old hands selling out. It's interesting to see old hands reliably sold tops until this present cycle. They sold the #bitcoin bottom at $3-$4k, they are selling right now.

There are several reasons long-time holders are selling BTC at the current price. BTC has increased by three-fold since March, and it is a decent take-profit area for sellers. The $12,000 area has also served as a strong resistance level throughout the past two months.

Will the dormant Bitcoin HODLers be proven right this time?

Atop the various technical reasons, there are cyclical reasons that could encourage dormant Bitcoin holders to sell.

In the last two fourth quarters, Bitcoin recorded negative returns. The tendency of BTC to underperform during the last quarter, alongside the $12,000 resistance, could compel holders to take profit.

However, some technical analysts believe Bitcoin is at the cusp of starting a new cycle. In the upcoming months, BTC could continue to grind upwards to higher resistance levels and not see a major pullback.

Filbfilb, a popular cryptocurrency analyst, pinpointed the post-halving cycle seen in 2017. He said that BTC reached an all-time high after it broke out in the same week four years ago. He wrote:

Bitcoin's cyclical behaviour is difficult to escape from. Same week 4 years ago, Bitcoin was trying to finally break the 50% bear market fib retracement. It never looked back after that & tested ATH by January. This time it's different?

The trader also noted that institutions are seemingly longing Bitcoin at record levels. Following the high profile investmen ...

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