A Lifelong US Dollar Downtrend Paints Bullish Outlook for Bitcoin

Friday 25 September 2020, 6:16 PM AEST - 1 month ago

The US dollar is on track for its most significant monthly performance since July 2019. But it continues to feel the pressure from its all-time bearish outlook.

Why?

A monthly chart of the US dollar index (DXY), a barometer to gauge its performance against a basket of top foreign currencies, shows the greenback in a lifelong downtrend. So it appears, the index has been trending lower inside a Descending Channel, as confirmed by more than two lower highs and lower lows.

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DXY pulls back after testing the upper trendline of the giant Descending Channel. Source: TradingView.com

The purpled area shows a retest of the upper trendline for a breakout in March 2020, followed by a strong rejection.

It was not the US dollars first attempt to break over the Channel resistance; the greenback has been seeking a bullish move since 1985. Nevertheless, it has failed every time, with a few successful breakouts turning out to be fake.

The technical fractals alone leave the US dollar in a very bearish state.

It is also because of the greenbacks medium-term outlook. As the chart shows, DXY lately broke out of its prevailing Ascending Channel (black) to the downside. The index invalidated the support trendline that had helped it maintain its bullish bias since April 2011.

DXY pulled back by 2.38 percent so far into the September 2020 trading session. Nevertheless, the index showed signs of weakness near the Ascending Channel support, hinting that it could either consolidate ahead or move lower towards the purple support as it has done in its 25 years of trading.

Bitcoin vs the US Dollar

A Bitcoin price chart (BTC/USD) looks an exact opposite of the one of the US dollar index.

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BTCUSD looks prepared to conti ...

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