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Bitcoin Halving Uncertainty: Will The Impact Be Similar to Previous Events?
- The Bitcoin halving took place on 20th April, yet the price response was minimal, with only a 3.5% increase after a significant 19% drop from the all-time high of $73,700.
- What’s next for Bitcoin? Will it rally as many predict, or will we see further downside as it faces significant selling pressure and nears the 618 Fibonacci retracement?
- Ongoing global tensions and geopolitical news continue to destabilize the markets.
Market Volatility Driven by Global Events
Last week, the market experienced significant fluctuations as global geopolitical tensions caused major volatility across the board. At one point, Bitcoin fell below its daily “last line of defence” to $59,500 before rebounding sharply to $65,300—a nearly 10% increase within 24 hours.
As a trader during such uncertain times, I refrain from leverage trading and wait for the market to stabilize before making any moves. I approach trading with a strategy, not as a gamble, ensuring that my predictions are backed by solid data.
Post-Halving Uncertainty
Many retail investors and crypto enthusiasts had high expectations for massive reactions to the Bitcoin halving. However, historically, the effects of a Bitcoin halving have typically manifested a few months later. Now, the question remains: will this halving have a similar impact as previous ones?
Bitcoin’s Current Market Position: Testing Support Levels
At the time of writing this, Bitcoin is trading at $66,000 after a significant bounce off the daily support levels. Despite recent market volatility, the price has recovered fairly well. However, I’m not convinced that the bearish phase is completely over.
The global market is currently experiencing a reactionary pump following significant selling pressure in my opinion. Eventually, buyers had to intervene, which I believe occurred at the daily $60,000 support level. Yet, I remain sceptical about the presence of sufficient bullish pressure to sustain an upward movement.
Bitcoin: Rising Wedge and Fibonacci Levels
Currently, Bitcoin is facing rejection at a key Fibonacci retracement level, the 618, and has formed what is known as a rising wedge. This pattern typically suggests to technical traders that the price may face rejection at a key level of resistance. It’s important to note that all trading predictions are speculative and never guaranteed. A breakthrough above the 786 Fibonacci level would indicate to me that bulls might temporarily be back in control. However, until such a break occurs, my bias leans towards further potential declines.
I hope this week’s segment has provided valuable insights. Join us for an Empire Live Market Scan every Wednesday night at 7 pm for a FREE session with a coach. Simply register on the Empire Crypto Trading Social Media and Educational Platform.
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Author
Matthew Stella
Matt Stella embarked on his crypto trading journey when Bitcoin was valued at just $3,000. As the co-founder and Head Coach at Empire Crypto Trading, Matt excels in Technical Analysis and in pinpointing key areas of price action. He is dedicated to empowering the crypto community through education, offering weekly Market Scans, Technical Analysis tutorials, and leading a vibrant community of crypto enthusiasts on the Empire Crypto Trading platform, where members collaborate to navigate the market. Every Tuesday, he shares his invaluable market insights with the CNA community.
