The Flipped Side of the Coin: Bitcoin Insights for the Savvy Investor – Weekly Crypto Digest

For the seasoned investor eyeing Bitcoin’s trajectory, recent developments have sparked an alternative to the bullish short-term sentiment. Marcus Thiel, co-founder of 10x Research, who called the 2022 Bottom and the 2024 pre-halving surge, shares insights that paint a bearish picture for the cryptocurrency giant. 

Thiel points to a critical factor: the dwindling influence of traditional drivers like ETF inflows, which have tapered off notably in recent weeks. This retreat in ETF interest signifies broader market sentiments, signalling a shift towards caution in both traditional and crypto investment circles.

Delving deeper into the market dynamics, Thiel highlights a concerning trend: weakening market internals. From subdued funding rates to halfhearted participation from traditional finance players, the signs point to a potential downturn. This sentiment is not confined to Bitcoin alone but extends to tech stocks, mining stocks and broader market indices, reflecting a prevailing risk-off sentiment among investors. 

Amidst these uncertainties, Thiel suggests a cautious approach, anticipating a consolidation phase and potential downward pressure on Bitcoin prices.

Related: Bitcoin Miners Are Overvalued Warns Analyst, Stocks Could Plummet Further

As we chart the course ahead, Thiel challenges the narrative surrounding Bitcoin’s upcoming halving event. Rather than viewing it as a silver bullet for bullish momentum, he emphasises the role of macro factors such as government stimulus measures and interest rate policies in shaping market sentiment. This nuanced perspective underscores the complexity of Bitcoin’s performance amidst evolving macroeconomic landscapes. 

For the sharp investors out there, these insights could serve as a guiding light in navigating Bitcoin’s turbulent waters, advocating for strategic positioning amidst market uncertainties.

Hong Kong Approves First Spot BTC and ETH ETFs

Following the US’s approval earlier this year, Hong Kong has taken a significant step in the crypto adoption this week by regulating the trading of spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, marking a notable development as it is among the first to allow spot Ethereum funds. 

As it stands, while there are no crypto products currently available on Hong Kong’s trading platforms, ChinaAMC, Harvest Global, and Bosera International have received the green light to launch these funds when ready by Hong Kong’s Securities and Futures Commission (SFC).

Despite being a major player in Asia’s digital currency market, Hong Kong’s relationship with crypto has been somewhat strained, especially given its complicated dynamics with China, where crypto trading is essentially banned after a big crackdown in 2021. So, this is a bold statement. Further to this, it seems that mainland Chinese investors won’t be able to purchase these ETFs. As a result, total inflows are predicted to be in the $1 billion range, a figure far lower than previously expected.

Nevertheless, this strategic move aims to bolster Hong Kong’s standing as a central hub for global cryptocurrency innovation, potentially challenging other key markets like Singapore and Dubai!

BTC x Technical Analysis Halving Predictions.

In our recent deep dive into Bitcoin’s technical analysis, we highlighted the potential for a bullish pennant breakout. Unfortunately, the crucial daily close above $72,000 didn’t materialise, impacting the anticipated upward momentum.

Adding to the uncertainty, geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran have escalated, contributing to economic instability and influencing Bitcoin’s price during this black swan event.

Volume remains a significant factor in identifying market tops and bottoms. Closing above $64,000 on the 4hr chart for BTC is pivotal in determining the next directional move.

Despite external factors like geopolitical tensions, Bitcoin remains resilient, however with the events worldwide BTC might not hold the $60,000 levels. 

It has seemed unaffected by the recent floods in Dubai, which caused major liquidity issues (pun intended), however has not seemed to like the anticipation of a potential world war on our hands.

We’ve been leveraging the Elliott Wave Pattern to understand where the ABC corrective wave will lead us and the potential double-bottom play. However, Monday’s opening will provide clarity on whether it’s a genuine reversal or a false signal. Have the retailers been suckered into buying the bottom here, before we make another move down?

Despite market ups and downs, it’s wise to consider adopting a dollar-cost averaging (DCA) strategy for accumulating crypto assets. History has shown that this approach can yield favourable results, aligning probability with our investment goals.

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